The German export economy experienced a record month in June. But experts warn that the balance sheet will be affected by price increases. “Price-adjusted, there should be less left over from export growth,” it says.
German exporters posted record earnings in June due to good demand from the EU countries, the USA and China. Exports grew by 4.5 percent compared to the previous month and thus totaled 134.3 billion euros, as reported by the Federal Statistical Office. This is the third increase in a row after plus 1.3 percent in May and plus 4.6 percent in April. Economists surveyed by the Reuters news agency had only expected growth of 1.0 percent.
In the first six months, exports of goods rose by 13 percent year-on-year to EUR 754.2 billion. Imports increased even more significantly by 26.2 percent to 722.5 billion euros due to the increased prices for crude oil and gas.
“Price increases can increase the nominal export volume without actually exporting more,” warned the chief economist at VP Bank, Thomas Gitzel, against too much euphoria when interpreting the figures. “Price-adjusted, there should be less left over from the increase in exports,” said Alexander Krüger, chief economist at Hauck Aufhäuser Lampe Privatbank AG. “Foreign trade remains an economic problem child for the time being.”
Imports increased in June for the fifth month in a row, although the increase of 0.2 percent was significantly weaker than in the previous months. The trade balance – exports minus imports – again showed a clear plus of 6.4 billion euros in June. In May it was only 0.8 billion euros.
Most German exports went to the USA in June. After calendar and seasonal adjustment, 6.2 percent more goods were exported there than in May, with US exports totaling 14.2 billion euros. Exports to the People’s Republic of China rose by 2.4 percent to 8.9 billion euros, those to Great Britain by 4.2 percent to 6.0 billion euros. Goods worth 72.9 billion euros were exported to the member states of the European Union, 3.9 percent more than in the previous month.
Despite sanctions against Russia following the attack on Ukraine, exports to the country rose 14.5 percent month-on-month to 1.2 billion euros in June. Within a year, however, they fell significantly by 40.3 percent. Imports from Russia increased in June compared to the previous month by 4.8 percent to 3.5 billion euros. The country mainly supplies raw materials and energy. Germany is dependent on energy imports from abroad. Oil and gas prices have risen significantly since the beginning of the Ukraine war.
However, the mood among German exporters clouded over at the beginning of the second half of the year. The export expectations determined by the Ifo Institute fell in July to minus 0.5 points from plus 3.4 points in June. “The gas shortage weighs on the outlook for German exports,” said the Ifo Institute.
