This Tuesday, July 11 marks the start of a crucial summit, during which NATO leaders will meet for two days in Vilnius, Lithuania, to send a message of support to Ukraine. A meeting at the gates of Russia, while kyiv continues a difficult counter-offensive against Moscow and awaits commitments on its future membership.
On the eve of this meeting, Sweden’s integration into the Alliance was given a boost: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan finally agreed to lift his veto on this candidacy, after more than one year blockage.
The meeting of the 31 leaders of the countries of the Alliance is being held Tuesday and Wednesday in Vilnius, some 35 kilometers from the border with Belarus, an ally of Moscow, and not far from the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, under the protection in particular of Rafale aircraft deployed by France and Patriot missile batteries by Germany.
Russia carried out a drone strike on Kiev overnight, an operation carried out with Iranian-made Shahed aircraft launched from the south, likely from Russia’s Krasnodar region, according to Ukrainian sources.
Expected at the Vilnius summit, where he will meet his American counterpart Joe Biden on Wednesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called for “a clear signal” from the West on his country’s membership prospects.
“Ukraine deserves to be part of the Alliance. Not now, because now it’s war, but we need a clear signal and this signal is needed now,” insisted the Ukrainian head of state in a message on Telegram.
All the member countries recognize that this prospect is not conceivable as long as the war lasts. It would in fact be synonymous with world conflict: Article 5 of the Alliance states that an attack on one member is an attack on all members.
But the debate between allies thickens when it is necessary to formulate this promise of adhesion. Kyiv “has a place” in the Alliance? Kyiv must have “a path” to membership when “the conditions are right”? For weeks, diplomats have been searching for the subtle formula that will satisfy everyone, including kyiv.
The Baltic countries are the most eager. In Vilnius, the windows of the buses transporting journalists to the press center displayed an eloquent message: “While you wait for this bus, Ukraine is waiting to become a member of NATO. »
NATO will chart a “reform path” for Ukraine so that it can join the Atlantic Alliance, but without a “timing”, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan.
The Kremlin, for its part, has already warned NATO of the “very negative” consequences for European security of Ukraine’s membership. This prospect had been used as justification by Vladimir Putin to launch his invasion.
Ukraine has already welcomed NATO’s intention to exempt it from the “Membership Action Plan” (MAP), a kind of antechamber to the candidacy for the Alliance which sets a certain number reform goals. “But Ukraine will still have to carry out other reforms before joining NATO,” said a Western official on condition of anonymity.
While he has been very forthcoming with substantial military assistance to kyiv, US President Joe Biden has always been much more reserved about Ukraine’s promises of membership in the Alliance. “The process of joining NATO takes time,” he hammered on CNN before flying to Europe.
The tenant of the White House spoke, for the time being, of an agreement similar to that between the United States and Israel: the Jewish state receives every year several billion dollars from Washington in military aid, which provides long-term visibility.
These long-term arms supply commitments are being discussed between the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany. According to diplomatic sources, these commitments would be formulated outside the framework of NATO.
The weapons promises would complement the tens of billions of dollars of equipment already delivered to Ukraine since Russia invaded Ukraine just over 500 days ago. Ian Brzezinski, of the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington, regrets the reluctance of the White House to grant Kiev “an invitation and a clear roadmap” towards NATO membership.
“Making this decision is essential to boost Ukrainian morale at a decisive moment in the war and to convince Moscow that its hegemonic ambitions are doomed,” he said. “This is not only in the interest of Ukraine, but for the strategic benefit of the transatlantic community. »
The Vilnius summit will be the first for Finland, which in April became the 31st member country of this military alliance.
