The UN, Ukraine and Russia are completing the first negotiation step together with Turkey. It is important to avoid a global hunger crisis, because an estimated 20 million tons of grain are still stored in Ukraine. While there are different scenarios, in the end it depends on Moscow.
“Today we finally have a bit of hope,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres on Wednesday as Russia, Ukraine and the United Nations met in Istanbul, Turkey, to find a solution to the grain dispute. According to Guterres, what came out of these talks was a “decisive step”. Details should not be available until next week, but there is already agreement on issues such as joint control of the arrivals and departures of merchant ships.
The fact that envoys from Kyiv and Moscow sat together at the same table in public for the first time in a long time shows how big the problem is. According to estimates, around 20 million tons of grain are stored in the southern Ukrainian port of Odessa, mostly from last year’s harvest. If these are not shipped, experts warn of a global hunger crisis. Ukraine is one of the ten largest grain producers in the world. In order to send its goods all over the world, it relies on the Black Sea ports. But since the beginning of the war it has been impossible to get through there.
It’s also up to Russia. It’s not a complete blockade, says Johannes Peters from the Kiel Institute for Security Policy in an interview with ntv.de. But Russia has created such an insecure situation that no one risks passing through it with merchant ships, explains the expert on maritime strategy and security.
In addition, the rest of the way to Odessa is difficult to drive on. To protect against a landing by Russian forces from the south, Ukraine has planted mines on its Black Sea coast. According to Peters, Kyiv informed international shipping about this. “The law of the sea allows for defensive mining.” In this respect, there is no objection to what was done there. “However, understandably, Ukraine has not provided any information on exactly where and how many mines it has planted.” It is also possible that Russia itself has mined the access to the Crimean port of Sevastopol.
From a purely military point of view, Russia could do without the mines in the Black Sea. Because Ukraine does not have a large naval force. Nevertheless, US intelligence reported in late June that the Russian Navy had received orders to mine the ports of Odessa and Ochakiv and the Dnieper River. According to US information, this was intended to provoke a grain blockade.
With the uncertainty this creates, Russia has been successful so far. “They did everything they could to create this situation,” says Peters. Before the negotiations in Istanbul, Putin said that Kyiv should have the mines cleared, and then Russia would open access to the Black Sea. But this is a security risk for Ukraine, since the landing route on the Black Sea would then be free again for the Russian armed forces. In addition, Moscow has so far not really proven to be a reliable negotiating partner. This was shown, for example, in the humanitarian escape corridors around the steelworks in Mariupol.
In addition, Ukraine lacks the necessary funds to clear the mines itself. “Mine hunting is a highly complex undertaking that you have to master,” explains Peters. The Kremlin would probably not let those who could do it. “It cannot be assumed that Russia would agree to mine clearance with NATO forces,” he says. This also makes an EU mandate highly unlikely.
Other scenarios would also be possible: the countries bordering the Black Sea could clear the mines with Turkish help, for example. Although Turkey is a member of NATO, it has played a special role during the war so far. That is why the negotiations took place in Istanbul.
While highly unlikely at the moment, the big solution would be a UN mandate, says Peters. For one reason in particular: “It would have the charm that nations would also be involved that would be directly affected by the lack of grain deliveries. They could then not take part in an operation with deminers, but with experts.” But here, too, all those involved are dependent on the Kremlin. If UN Security Council approval is required, Russia can block it as a member there.
So the mines off Odessa won’t be getting away from there anytime soon. “A negotiated solution is needed if you want to export grain on a large scale,” says Peters. Apparently, this was also discussed in Istanbul. One possibility is to transport the grain to the Romanian border in the Danube Delta – either by ship or rail. Only the recapture of Snake Island by the Ukraine opened up this path.
But the solution is not ideal. More than 130 ships are now stowed in front of the Danube Delta, which is not designed for such volumes of freight. “All Ukrainian grain logistics are designed for sea transport,” says Peters. Large freighters are needed rather than railway wagons. In addition, there are huge amounts of grain involved. “The logistics flows have not yet been established, they only exist in theory,” explains Peters. It could be expensive to change this transport logic. But the costs would always be cheaper than a massive hunger crisis.
