More than 5000 planets outside the solar system are now known, and billions more are suspected to be in the Milky Way alone. With a generation of new high-performance telescopes like the “James Webb” space telescope, researchers want to look for traces of extraterrestrial life there – they could also stumble across a highly developed civilization. But what would that do to humanity?
Exosociologists like Michael Schetsche, who until recently did research at the Institute for Border Areas of Psychology and Mental Health in Freiburg and at the Institute for Sociology at the University of Freiburg, are dealing with scenarios of a first contact. Now retired, he speaks to ntv.de about possible scenarios in which humanity learns about intelligent extraterrestrials. He explains which of these he thinks is the most likely – and how it would change humanity.
Mr. Schetsche, as an exo-sociologist, you are concerned with the social consequences in the event that humanity learns of the existence of an extraterrestrial civilization for the first time. Are you hoping that will happen soon so you can see if your reasoning is correct?
No, we sociologists are polarized differently. I hope that doesn’t happen in my lifetime. I see it more as a possible civilizational crisis. And we already have so many conflicts on earth that I can’t even imagine what an external conflict potential would do.
For a long time now, large radio telescopes have been listening in on the sky for possible artificial signals from alien civilizations in space. If it were actually possible to receive such a signal, what would that do to humanity?
It depends on the distance from which the signal is coming to us. For example, if it comes from a star system that is 10,000 light-years away, that also means that the signal traveled 10,000 years. So it was sent at a time when there was no high human civilization. And maybe the civilization that sent it no longer exists. In addition, you can’t have a dialogue at such a distance because you would always have to wait 20,000 years for an answer. So that would be the case of maximum insignificance. However, it would be something completely different if the source of the signal were, for example, 40 light-years away, i.e. in our closer galactic environment. Then two questions arise. The first is: Can you have a dialogue? At this distance, you would have to wait about 80 years for an answer. But maybe that’s just the way it is. The second question is: can we maybe even fly there? Or maybe the others can come to us? That makes things more exciting.
What would the discovery of such a signal from our galactic neighborhood do to humanity?
This will surely make more people think about astronomical and philosophical questions. It might even stimulate a few religious cults. Of course, for our technical progress, the direction of our science and technology, the knowledge that there is another civilization 40 light years away would have incredible implications. That would certainly give a lot of impetus to space travel. But I suspect that the overall impact on people’s everyday lives will be rather small.
In some films, the first contact with an extraterrestrial civilization really welds humanity together – wars are ended and differences are overcome. Is this a legitimate hope if we pick up a signal from aliens?
As a sociologist, I am skeptical. Rather, I think there will be competing contact-making projects. And there will also be national interests that could quickly come into conflict with one another.
With the “James Webb” space telescope, which is already in use, and a new generation of giant telescopes, researchers want to examine the atmospheres of distant exoplanets for traces of life in the coming years. It would also be conceivable to discover so-called techno-signatures that indicate an intelligent civilization – such as industrial exhaust gases. Could this solve the mystery of whether we are alone in space?
Well, technologically it is certainly possible to discover such traces in the next few decades. But even if you discover an unusual spectrum in a planet’s atmosphere, I think it’s very unlikely that you can say with certainty that it’s artificial in origin. There will always be a faction on Earth that says this and that connection in the atmosphere indicates technology. However, others will point to mechanisms of how something like this can also occur naturally.
In your book “Sie sind da”, which you wrote together with Andreas Anton, you describe further scenarios of how mankind could find out about the existence of an extraterrestrial civilization. One of them is the artifact scenario. Can you explain that briefly?
The artifact scenario is about finding something in our solar system, like on the moon or in the asteroid belt, that is artificial and not man-made. I think this scenario is the most likely.
More likely than receiving a radio message?
Yes. Because if a message is sent from a planet 1000 light years away, then it has to arrive at exactly the time when we can also receive it. Had it been sent 100 years earlier, we would not have had a recipient. And in 100 years we may not exist anymore. In the signal scenario, the time must therefore be very precise. This is not the case with artifacts. When extraterrestrials leave behind waste from an expedition or old engine parts, these are traces that can last for millions of years on a celestial body without an atmosphere, such as an asteroid or the moon. So we could find something very old and the time component is not as critical as it is with the signal.
What consequences could the discovery of an extraterrestrial artifact have for mankind?
The artifact scenario is problematic in two ways. For one thing, the cultural impact is greater because the find means aliens have already been here. That would be proof that interstellar distances can be bridged and we would have to expect that the aliens would come back one day. That brings them much closer to us. It would also raise questions as to whether they are still watching us and whether there are other probes that we haven’t found yet. That could also create a diffuse threat.
What’s the other problem with such a find?
That there is as yet no international agreement on who owns such artifacts should they be found in space. When that happens, whoever gets there first takes it to Earth. Assuming you can bring it to Earth. And if, for example, a broken alien space probe still contains usable technology, then there could be a real race. The question then arises as to who is giving it a head start, militarily and economically. This can trigger competition among corporations, but also among nation states. Finding such an extraterrestrial object could therefore be the starting point for at least one international crisis.
You also warn in your book against bringing such an artifact to Earth…
… I agree. That would be completely insane. After all, it could still be functional and contain an interplanetary drive that would blow up an entire continent if humans messed around with it and experimented with it. So my first advice when finding an artifact would be leave it where it is or take it far from Earth.
For many people, the third scenario you describe is probably the most familiar: We are being visited by an intelligent extraterrestrial civilization. That should be pretty exciting?
You have to make a constraint right away. Science fiction gave us the idea that beings with tentacles would then come to us, i.e. organic creatures from another planet. However, I think that is unlikely.
Why?
When beings arise on the surface of a planet, they are not well suited to interstellar space. Therefore, they would have to have such an advanced biology that they could breed themselves. Then they could make themselves super-cosmonauts, able to travel through space and protected against radiation. Or they send artificial representatives or, what I think is even more likely, it’s a non-biological secondary civilization anyway. In other words, an artificial intelligence that emerged from a biological civilization a long, long time ago.
How would direct contact with extraterrestrials affect humanity?
In terms of impact, this is the maximum. One can assume that an encounter scenario will have religious implications for us. My prediction is very clear: when that happens, the first thing that will emerge will be religious cults. Namely, two types of religious cults. Some say the extraterrestrials are a divine force that we should worship, and others say they are emissaries of the devil that we should definitely destroy. And in between, the Catholic Church, which is discussing whether the extraterrestrials can be baptized.
Should we be afraid of these strangers?
With such asymmetrical cultural contacts, where some are more advanced than others, there is always a logic of discoverers and discovered. And in that case we would be the discovered ones. In terms of mass psychology, that never goes down well with people. Thus, within a few decades, contact with the Europeans completely destroyed the native cultures of the Greater Antilles. We know from our own history that 95 percent of the asymmetric cultural contacts in the last 2000 years ended badly for those discovered. It has something to do with a feeling of inferiority. With the feeling that the others are much further and much better than you.
But mankind has evolved ethically – if we were to discover America today, we would probably treat the natives there more humanely than in the days of Columbus. Can’t one therefore assume that extraterrestrials with a much more advanced civilization have reached such a high level of morality that we have nothing to fear from them? Might they not even be benevolent to us and want to help us with our problems, such as climate change?
Of course it can be. However, I advise caution when parallelizing technical and moral progress. You can also see it in our history, the most technologically advanced countries were not the most moral. I only remember the Third Reich. It had incredible weapons technology, but was ethical but the worst. There is even the theory that extraterrestrial species that operate interstellar space travel will always be aggressive because they are descended from predators, i.e. from hunters. For some astrobiologists assume that it is always the hunting animals that form civilizations, never the hunted ones.
What could be the motive of aliens to come to us?
Years ago, the well-known SETI researcher Seth Shostak had speculated about religious motives for extraterrestrials to visit Earth. If so, then we might be faced with alien fundamentalists wanting to baptize us. But I’m more likely to expect artificial intelligence and I’m not sure what role religious motives play in this. And yes, maybe aliens want to help us with our problems. But there can also be a whole range of other motives. However, it cannot necessarily be deduced from the observable behavior of the visitors.
Why not?
Because they may have completely different standards than we do. If an extraterrestrial spaceship lands on earth and 1000 people die in the process, then you can consider that an aggressive act. But it could also be that this is an insect-derived species, in which it is perfectly normal for a few thousand individuals to perish. When a large group of ants wants to cross a stream, a few thousand sacrifice themselves to create a bridge for others to cross. And that’s not unethical, they’re just different behavior patterns.
As an exo-sociologist, you assume that there are intelligent alien civilizations. Of course I have to ask about the famous Fermi paradox – if there are many other civilizations in our Milky Way, why haven’t we heard about them until today?
I believe that the Fermi paradox is based on completely false assumptions. Behind this is a cultural model of western civilizations that all areas must be visited, explored or conquered. However, there may well be extraterrestrial civilizations that function completely differently. But we won’t be able to get in touch with them if they do transcendental meditation all day long. Because they don’t send out space probes. The other good explanation for the Fermi Paradox is that we live in some kind of cosmic zoo. In this case, the aliens are watching us, but there is still a ban on contact. But I think there is another possibility that is the most likely.
Which one would that be?
We estimated in our book that there are currently 50 extraterrestrial civilizations in our galaxy at the same time. But the Milky Way is huge, and our Earth may be in a region where civilizations aren’t as dense. It may be that the distances are then simply too far, even with advanced technology. A contact could have already taken place, but we don’t know anything about it. Perhaps a large extraterrestrial expedition landed on Earth 100,000 years ago. Perhaps they were already there millions of years ago or will be millions of years from now. We’ve only had the technology to connect with them for 60, 70 years. The fact that nothing happens in this period can simply be due to these large time scales.
If you had to guess, when do you think we might first hear about an extraterrestrial civilization?
I think if there are extraterrestrial artifacts in our solar system, we will probably find them in the next 100 or 200 years. Of course, only if they are not based on nanotechnology or the like and are only one millimeter in size. But of course it could happen at any time.
You warn of the great potential for a crisis should humanity find an artifact or extraterrestrials come to visit us. Would you be relieved if it turns out we’re all alone in space after all?
I wouldn’t be really happy because that would be pretty lonely. And as a social scientist, no matter how skeptical you are, you still have hope that humanity will evolve. And if we survive the climate catastrophe, then maybe we’ll be a bit smarter and at some point we’ll be able to deal better with an encounter scenario of whatever kind.
Kai Stoppel spoke to Michael Schetsche
