Maintaining unity around Ousmane Sonko is today the challenge of Yewwi Askan Wi (YAW), the opposition coalition in Senegal. By announcing on Monday, July 3, that he will not run for a third term in the presidential election scheduled for February 2024, President Macky Sall gave him a victory, but he also deprived him of one of his two arguments. of mobilization. The question now arises of the cohesion of the opposition around the second: the candidacy of Mr. Sonko, an opponent certainly popular but, as it stands, ineligible after several convictions, house arrest and under threat of arrest .

“Since Monday, I have been hearing people (…) exult. But be careful, you have to be very careful. The central question of Senegal’s stability remains the case of Ousmane Sonko. To prevent him from being a candidate is to challenge millions of young Senegalese and Africans. And no one can overpower the young,” warned Habib Sy, the president of the YAW leadership conference, on Wednesday.

“Let him [Macky Sall] say that Ousmane Sonko will not be a candidate and Senegal will no longer sleep. The candidacy of Ousmane Sonko is a demand of the people. It will in no way depend on a conspiracy. He will be a candidate,” added Birame Soulèye Diop for the African Patriots of Senegal for Work, Ethics and Fraternity (Pastef), Mr. Sonko’s party.

The latter has shown his ability to raise the street, and a possible arrest would be likely to provoke new violence. In June, following his trial for “rape” and ultimately his two-year prison sentence for “youth corruption”, at least 23 people were killed in clashes with ISIS forces. order, according to Amnesty International. The Minister of Justice then said that the opponent could be arrested “at any time”.

And in his speech on Monday, the Head of State maintained a firm line against Mr. Sonko, assuring that “the authors, the sponsors, the accomplices [of the violence] will answer for their unspeakable acts before the courts” and that he will not compromise with “the gravediggers of the nation, of the state, of the republic”.

Dialogue national

“Macky Sall used justice to remove Ousmane Sonko. Our wish is that he take political measures to definitively resolve this problem in order to install Senegal in stability, ”pleads Habib Sy, however.

The former minister of Abdoulaye Wade refers to the probable lifting of the ineligibility of Karim Wade, the son of the former president, and of Khalifa Sall, the former mayor of Dakar, both sentenced by justice. By agreeing to participate in the national dialogue launched at the end of May by the Head of State, these two opponents have in fact negotiated their right to participate in the 2024 election. At the request of Macky Sall, the National Assembly must proceed urgently to the modification of the provisions preventing them from presenting themselves. A clemency from which Ousmane Sonko will not benefit, who, like other members of YAW, declined the offer of dialogue, judging it instrumentalized by the president.

This sequence of consultations fractured the coalition. For having participated, Khalifa Sall is accused by Mr. Sonko’s supporters of having negotiated his eligibility in return for the elimination of their champion. A sign of internal tensions, the former mayor of Dakar was not present at the YAW conference on Tuesday. On RFI, he was content to wish that “all those who aspire to be a candidate can do so”, taking care not to name Mr. Sonko.

In the event of the definitive eviction of the leader of Pastef, who came third in the 2019 presidential election with 15% of the votes, the cards would obviously be reshuffled within the opposition. Yesterday’s allies could benefit from this, starting with Khalifa Sall. But while polls on political opinions are banned in Senegal, his popularity remains uncertain, while that of Ousmane Sonko has grown steadily in recent years.

“Khalifa Sall is certainly established in the capital, but this is partly due to the YAW machine. It remains difficult to estimate its weight at the national level, ”explains Babacar Ndiaye, political analyst at the Wathi think tank. “It should not be underestimated. He is a man respected and appreciated by the religious. His time in prison gave him the image of a martyr. Moreover, he appears less divisive than other leaders of his camp, “says a local political actor.

The Déthié Fall option

On the Pastef side, we refuse to mention the probability of a candidacy other than that of Ousmane Sonko. The opponent is, as he put it, “the A to Z plan” of the party, regardless of the outcome of his legal cases. What will happen if arrested? “The Pastef has bet everything on Sonko, he’s the only one who can defend him. Seven months before the election, the party will find it difficult to bring out a leading personality, ”analyzes Babacar Ndiaye.

There remains the option of a candidacy led by another YAW leader, Déthié Fall. At the head of the Republican Party for Progress (PRP), this close friend of Mr. Sonko also refused national dialogue. Could he convince the Pastef electorate? “He is respected but is not a new face of politics”, while “Sonko embodies a wind of change”, continues Babacar Ndiaye.

After years of controversy around the third term and seven months before the presidential election, the substantive debates are likely to wait. However, the situation is unprecedented. “For the first time, we will have a campaign without the incumbent president. This is an opportunity to witness a confrontation of ideas, programs and visions of Senegal, says Babacar Ndiaye. The opposition will have to quickly renew its discourse now that the question of the third term is settled. And that it now goes to the essential subjects that concern the Senegalese, such as the improvement of their living conditions. It remains to settle, beforehand, the question of the personalities entitled to present their program.