Number 10, after a series of high-profile resignations, will be eager to claim they have stabilized the ship. There is a new chancellor with a different approach, a new secretary for health and education, and a new chancellor.
Boris Johnson’s ally claimed that Rishi Javid and Sajid Javid failed to “tap up support” from other cabinet ministers before they announced their resignations Tuesday evening. However, one additional minister has yet to clarify his intentions.
His ally assures him that he will weather the storm, but political waters remain turbulent.
Many of Johnson’s Conservative critics, including some still-serving ministers, believe he is below the waterline.
How could it happen if his premiership goes under?
First, there is the possibility that there will be more resignations in the next few days.
Already, the number of junior ministers leaving is increasing, with some surprising names as well, which keeps the pressure on the prime Minister.
Downing Street insists they have taken into account additional resignations and do not consider these to be an existential threat.
It is still a ways away from the tipping point, where there aren’t enough people to fill vacant posts.
However, not all those who don’t give up on the prime minister are loyal.
Although the PM is expected to remain supportive publicly, some ministers may privately ask him about his position.
If he refuses to do this, which seems probable, it could lead to more departures. One minister told me that he’d leave if the PM tried to stay on through the summer recess.
Some leadership hopefuls may be nervous that Rishi will win all the races if they don’t distance themselves from No 10.
One minister stated that Nadhim Zahawi, the newly appointed Chancellor, had been seen as credible and credible, but that he was now “contaminated”.
If the PM does not dig in, the next week’s elections for the backbench 1922 commission could be crucial.
Boris Johnson is in serious trouble if MPs present a platform to change the leadership rules from a majority.
Last month’s confidence vote saw the PM survive and he is now exempt from any further challenge for 12 consecutive months under current rules.
Rebel MPs seek to be elected to the committee to amend that rule to allow for a further confidence vote.
Although it was expected that the rules could change to allow another vote within one year, it wouldn’t happen until the Autumn after the Privileges Committee decides whether the PM has intentionally misled Parliament.
There is talk now of calling a confidence ballot sooner than expected. Some people have set a time frame: within 24 hours or within days of the rules being changed.
If they feel the mood has changed in favor of the prime minister, the existing executive might also change the rules sooner, perhaps this week.
Boris Johnson would lose in a confidence vote. Nominations for a new leader would then be open. MPs could possibly narrow down the candidates to the last two before the summer recess.
Surprisingly, I spoke to several Conservative MPs who supported Boris Johnson in his confidence vote but who refused to support him in the next. One MP was a prominent supporter of him during the last leadership race.
One Brexit backer and ex-Boris supporter said it best: “This cannot go either way.” This must stop by the Autumn.
Another possibility was also raised.
Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 committee could travel to No 10, metaphorically carrying a stack of no confidence letters. He informs the PM that the leadership rules in this scenario will be changed and that he will lose every subsequent vote. Perhaps he should therefore leave the premises before he is forced to.
Boris Johnson, who has scrapped the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, could now respond by going to Buckingham Palace and seeking a dissolution parliament and a general elections.
Although no one from Downing Street has suggested this to me, there is plenty of concern in and around Parliament.
Westminster is, naturally, nothing but a hotbed for speculation.
Boris Johnson, Houdini-like has escaped from tight political spots in the past.
However, the legendary escape artist was not happy with his decision.
