Igor Girkin knows about the war in Donbass. The notorious ex-military, an ardent Russian nationalist, is skeptical about the fighting there. The offensive potential of the Lysychansk troops was “practically exhausted”. According to a think tank, Girkin is an example of the “disillusionment”.
Former Russian military commander Igor Girkin has delivered a scathing criticism of Russia’s warfare and questioned the importance of taking the eastern Ukrainian city of Lysychansk. This writes the US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and sees it as a “remarkable example” of the disillusionment among Russian military observers.
The staunch Russian nationalist, who already commanded fighters during the war in Donbass in 2014 and liked to publicly appear under the pseudonym Strelkov, told Telegram that the Russian armed forces had paid too high a price for limited profit. “The offensive potential of the battle group that took Lysytschank is practically exhausted. Continuing the offensive without the operational break necessary for resupply and recovery of the troops carries the risk of further heavy casualties without significant results,” reads a post of April 4. July.
The lack of reinforcements and the inability to make substitutions after months lead to “a slow but steady decline in the actual combat readiness and morale of our units”. The situation is becoming increasingly difficult for the Russian armed forces, “because the enemy has more and more personnel and modern war equipment at their disposal,” says hardliner Girkin. According to him, Russian forces have limited prospects of advancing elsewhere in Ukraine due to the superiority in manpower and materiel of Ukrainian forces.
Girkin, who has almost 400,000 Telegram subscribers, also complained that the Russian armed forces had not achieved the announced goals of the “second phase of special operations” – as the war in Russia is called. He insisted that accepting the battle on Ukrainian terms was a huge mistake by the Russian leadership.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, Girkin is “a striking example” of how disillusioned Russian military bloggers and military enthusiasts are with the Kremlin’s handling and conduct of its operations in Ukraine. Especially after the dramatically failed river crossing at Bilohorivka in early May. “Girkin’s statements show “that the disillusionment among ultra-nationalist elements in the Russian information space continues to run deep,” according to the think tank.
Girkin’s assessment of Russia’s military failures suggests that he and some other military bloggers continue to make and publish assessments and forecasts independent of the Kremlin line, according to the US think tank. Girkin likely hopes to use his status as a prominent former participant in the 2014 war in Donbass to persuade Putin to take certain measures to ensure Russian success in the war. However, Girkin still considers the attack on Ukraine to be justified and necessary – and advocates the mobilization of the Russian population on a much larger scale.
