After the Lib Dems won the Tiverton, a rural stronghold in the south-west, and Honiton, the Conservatives suffered a crushing defeat. Labour also returned to power in the seat of Wakefield.
Over the past few weeks, Martyn Oates, our South West political editor, and James Vincent (our Yorkshire political editor), have been following the candidates closely and talking to voters from both very different communities. Here’s what they learned.
1/ Low wages and high home prices squeeze voters
The South West appears to be a typical rural Conservative stronghold. From the 2015 general elections until this by-election, every constituency except two had a Conservative MP. However, Cornwall and Devon also faced serious socio-economic challenges before the cost of living crisis.
Cornwall has been the focus of government funding. Devon County Council research shows that this constituency has a productivity per head equal or lower than Cornwall’s, but without the recognition of the government.
Low wages contrast with skyrocketing house prices. In rural areas like these, where a car can be seen as an essential part of life and work, spiralling fuel prices are a concern.
It has been difficult to get the voice of rural South West heard in Westminster. Some think it has become more difficult with the current government’s inability to help its new North friends.
2/ Farmers in collision with the government
The whole constituency is shaped by agriculture, from Exmoor to Blackdown Hills to Jurassic Coast. The government is on a collision course in at least three areas of policy with the farming community.
Farmers claim they are plowing crops back into the ground again because they can’t find enough foreign labour due to the government’s new immigration rules.
The new trade agreements ministers made with Australia and New Zealand are causing concern for livestock farmers, who dominate the country. They fear that they will be outsourced to cheap meat from abroad. Even the government’s analysis concluded that the agricultural sector would be affected.
The end of EU-style farm subsidies is particularly feared in places like this, where small family farms depend on them for their survival.
3. The Prime Minister’s Personality is a Big Deal
Boris Johnson’s celebrity status and unconventional approach to high-office life always posed a risk, but many saw it as the trumpcard that won the Conservatives their overwhelming majority in 2019. The PM’s personality was a prominent feature in this by-election, two-and-half year into his premiership.
All three candidates for the big parties boasted impressive local credentials. Another local, the ex-MP who resigned to trigger this by-election, was undoubtedly the other major political personality in the area. However, he had no active involvement. Neil Parish is a well-known farmer and has been praised for his tireless efforts in the community. This may be a reminder of how strong local candidates can make or break political climates.
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1/ Fans don’t back beleaguered clubs
Many Wakefield residents are Leeds United supporters. Although they will continue to support Leeds United, they might not attend games if the team is struggling. This is what could have happened with the Conservatives.
Natural Conservative voters might have stayed home and not voted. They were not well served by the low turnout and, just as beleaguered club members, they may have shown their support for the cause by not voting at all.
Changes in the manager are the best way for football clubs to get out of a rut.
2/ The Prime Minister’s No-show might have had an impact
Perhaps leader visits are important in elections campaigns. Sir Keir Starmer visited Wakefield several times. Boris Johnson was due to arrive last week, but he went to Ukraine instead. This can be read both ways, as usual. Perhaps the Conservatives didn’t want the PM to be in front of microphones during difficult times. It could have also looked like they didn’t take the by-election seriously.
The PM was also supported by nearby MPs who voted for him in the confidence vote. This is partly because they considered him a winner. Some MPs were able to get their first job at Westminster thanks to him. He’s not even a candidate for the Yorkshire election. Is he going to Yorkshire to be the next PM?
3/ Are North-based voters returning to Labour?
Labour can retake the “red wall” seats. It’s not the red wall. But Labour believes they can get them back. Conservatives believe this election was called for a particular reason that proves nothing.
Labour was the favourites but it was not clear how large they could win. The Conservatives could have dismissed a narrow win as Labour voters not liking Sir Keir. Labour can see this as proof that people are returning to them with a majority of nearly 5,000. There is a huge difference between a byelection and general elections.
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