The last weekend in June will be hot and muggy again in many places and will bring thunderstorms. The mercury column exceeds the 30-degree mark, as ntv meteorologist Björn Alexander knows. And the new week begins in a very summery way. For July, however, the first signs point to average weather.
ntv: The weekend is approaching, as is Sieben Dormouse Day – what are the prospects?
Björn Alexander: Our weather continues to be very intense and ranges between the extremes of summer. First of all with some heavy thunderstorms, which are expected to peak on Monday – i.e. exactly on the day of the dormouse. Before that, there is sometimes muggy heat and again a risk of forest fires at the highest warning level of 5.
What’s the timetable for the storms?
Already in the evening and in the night of Friday there can be severe thunderstorms south-west of a line from Munich up to Cologne, before the thunderstorm-active zone spreads to around the Elbe on Friday. At the start of the weekend, the thundery downpours will subside for a while, but will be reactivated again on Sunday and especially on Monday from the west.
What dangers do we have to reckon with?
In addition to lightning-intensive thunderstorms, there is a particular threat of heavy rain, small to medium hail and gusty winds. According to the current status, with wind speeds of up to 100 kilometers per hour and with amounts of rain that can reach 20 to 40, maybe even 50 liters per square meter in a short time. This means that local flooding and wind damage to heavily leafed trees are possible.
That doesn’t sound good – what about the weekend in detail?
On Saturday, the thunderstorms will move to the east and then on to Poland and the Czech Republic. This means that the greatest risk of storms has been averted for the time being and we can look forward to pleasant summer weather with corresponding temperatures between 22 degrees Celsius on the coast and up to 30 degrees on the Upper Rhine.
And on Sunday?
The next heat peak piles up. In the east it will be sunny 33 degrees on Sunday, while in the rest of the country the air will start to bubble again. Stronger thunderstorms are also conceivable. In any case, Monday has the greatest potential. Especially since the air mass situation is getting worse again.
What does that mean exactly?
On Sunday we can expect maximum values ??between 22 degrees in the Eifel and 33 degrees in Lusatia, with the humidity increasing. On Monday, hotter and wetter air will again push its way from the Mediterranean region over the Alps to Germany. This brings us a muggy, warm to hot air mass mix with maximum values ??between 20 degrees on the North Sea and up to 35 degrees in the east.
Does that mean the heat is gone?
Probably not. The weather computers see quite different scenarios for the last days of June. But the sometimes sweltering heat from southern Europe plays a role in most of the approaches. And so repeated heat and storm warnings remain on the agenda.
A bad omen for our summer?
With regard to the edible dormouse, it is about the period up to the end of the first third of July. In this respect, we still have all options for the core or midsummer. In principle, however, July also seems to want to take a twisting path. At least the experimental long-term forecasts for the month as a whole are still more in the area of ??average temperatures. At the same time, it should even tend to get too wet in the north and east. In view of the forest fire and drought situation in the east, this is certainly a good trend that will hopefully last.
What about the heat in the rest of Europe?
Currently, the heat has shifted more towards the central and eastern Mediterranean, while the western Mediterranean is still suffering from the aftermath of the last heat wave. Because compared to the long-term average, it is around four to five degrees warmer than normal.
What are the consequences?
For coastal regions, this means that it no longer cools down as well at night and that this will definitely be noticeable during the next heat wave. On the other hand, the more far-reaching consequences are that it is even easier for the heat from the depths of the Sahara or from northern Africa to find its way north. The heat waves thus intensify each other. And finally, an above-average warming of the Mediterranean means that the storms can become more intense.
Why?
Higher temperatures are always accompanied by more possible water vapor in the air. That equates to more energy, which in turn increases the potential for severe weather. The heat in southern Europe therefore also has several effects on the weather in Germany.
