France is still not reducing its emissions enough to do its part in the fight against climate change and is not “ready to face” its effects either, warns the High Council for the Climate on Wednesday.
The year 2022, a new “benchmark” for the climate to come, demonstrates this, underlines this independent authority in its annual report, 200 pages of evaluation, benchmark for the country’s climate strategy.
The record heat and exceptional drought of 2022 have “resulted in serious impacts in France (…) exceeding the current crisis prevention and management capacity”, estimates the HCC.
In 2022, “we were not able to manage (…) we were overwhelmed”, summarizes for AFP its president, climatologist Corine Le Quéré.
In addition to a temperature record (2.9°C compared to 1900-1930), the year was marked by a 25% rainfall deficit compared to 1991-2020, and is now a “reference point” for French vulnerabilities.
“Decreases in yield of 10% to 30%” in agriculture, hydroelectric production “20% lower than the 2015-2019 average”, tensions on drinking water, excess heat-related mortality … The HCC analyzes a par one the economic and social impacts, without forgetting the effects of drought on biodiversity: “virtual absence of reproductions” of certain amphibians, “weak or abnormal reproduction” of water birds.
8,000 municipalities have requested recognition as “natural disasters” because of the shrinkage-swelling of dry clay soil, which causes cracks in buildings. The cost of the phenomenon for insurance, “estimated at 2.9 billion euros, is at the limit of sustainable according to the Central Reinsurance Fund”, notes the HCC.
“From the years 2022, we will have more and more of them, they will intensify (…) and we must have a really urgent response”, warns Corine Le Quéré, head of the HCC since its creation in 2019 by Emmanuel Macron.
With Europe warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet, the government has just begun drafting a strategy for adapting to a climate 4°C warmer by the end of the century than by compared to the 19th century, before the massive emissions of greenhouse gases from human activity.
The report also exposes the limits of the fight against fires, forced last year to call on foreign reinforcements. Forest fires (72,000 ha burned) and global warming continue to deteriorate the performance of these carbon sinks, essential to hope to meet the objective of carbon neutrality in 2050.
With a 2.7% decline in 2022, the decline in national emissions continues, but at “an insufficient rate to achieve the objectives”, repeats the HCC, especially since it results “in part from cyclical factors (in particular a mild winter reducing heating needs).
“The government can no longer discard itself and must finally react with structuring measures”, reacted the NGOs which are suing the State in the “Affair of the Century”.
The government for its part notes a faster drop in emissions than among its neighbours.
France is committed to reducing them by 40% by 2030 compared to 1990 and with this in mind sets its emission ceilings in its National Low Carbon Strategy (SNBC).
The 3rd SNBC, imminent, must be reinforced to take into account new European objectives (-55%). To achieve this, “the decline must practically double on average until 2030”, recalls Corine Le Quéré.
But after the failure of the first, “the second carbon budget is in the process of being exceeded over the period 2019-2022 due to the low absorption by carbon sinks”, warns the HCC. Their storage capacity “is more than twice that expected by SNBC 2”, in particular due to increased tree mortality.
The HCC calls for a “large-scale economic policy” requiring public and private funding “of the order of 30 billion per year by 2030” to decarbonize the economy, in priority transport, the largest emitter (32%) ahead of industry.
“This means that all tax loopholes financing fossil fuels must be eliminated, with a timetable”, sums up the president of the HCC, whose report estimates unfavorable climate spending at 43 billion euros in 2023.
06/28/2023 22:42:05 – Paris (AFP) – © 2023 AFP
