The details of the current RTL/ntv trend barometer are not encouraging for CDU leader Friedrich Merz. Whether in the Union as a whole, in his own party or in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia: Nowhere would he be the preferred candidate for chancellor. His name is Markus Söder.

If the supporters of the Union had to decide on a candidate for chancellor, it would be the Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder. In a Forsa survey for RTL/ntv, 38 percent consider Söder to be the most suitable next candidate for the sister parties. CDU leader Friedrich Merz, who is also the leader of the opposition in the Bundestag, only gets 23 percent.

For Merz, the survey results are also bleak in detail. Of the supporters of the CDU, only 24 percent think their own party leader, but 34 percent see Söder as the better candidate for chancellor. Of the CSU supporters, only 18 percent consider the leader of the sister party to be a suitable candidate for chancellor, while 59 percent believe their own leader.

After the electoral successes of Daniel Günther in Schleswig-Holstein and Hendrik Wüst in North Rhine-Westphalia, these two are also being discussed as potential candidates for Chancellor of the Union. Those eligible to vote across the republic consider both to be similarly suitable as Merz.

Merz also has problems in the federal states. In Bavaria, 41 percent of those eligible to vote there consider Söder and only 13 percent Merz to be the most suitable candidate for chancellor. In North Rhine-Westphalia, Merz’ home state, Söder also surpasses him. But those eligible to vote on the Rhine and Ruhr are most likely to consider their incumbent and probably future prime minister Wüst to be the Union’s next candidate for chancellor.

If the Bundestag were re-elected now, the CSU would achieve a significantly better result with 36 percent than the CDU in the rest of Germany with 26 percent, as it did in the last election in September 2021. If the CSU in Bavaria received only 26 percent like the CDU in its constituency, the Union as a whole – as in the federal election 8 months ago – would have a worse result by one percentage point: 26 instead of 27 percent with the help of the CSU.

In a state election in Free State, the CSU could expect a significantly better result than in a federal election and would again reach the 40 percent mark. Like the state CDU in Schleswig-Holstein and North Rhine-Westphalia, the CSU in Bavaria also has a pronounced “state bonus” compared to the Union as a whole.

This state bonus is mainly due to the fact that the CSU is believed to have significantly greater political competence than the Union as a whole: 38 percent of Bavarian voters believe that the CSU is the party that is best able to deal with the problems in Bavaria. On the other hand, just 11 percent believe that the Union as a whole has political competence, as do voters throughout Germany.

This advantage is also based on the fact that Markus Söder is popular in Bavaria. If Bavarian voters could elect their prime minister themselves, 53 percent would vote for him and only a few for the two competitors from the SPD and the Greens.

The data on the candidate for Chancellor of the Union was collected by the market and opinion research institute forsa on behalf of RTL Germany from June 2nd to 3rd, 2022. Database: 1,001 respondents. Statistical error tolerance: /- 3 percentage points. The data on the political mood in Bavaria was collected by the market and opinion research institute forsa on behalf of RTL Germany from May 23 to June 3, 2022. Database: 1,049 respondents. Statistical error tolerance: /- 3 percentage points.

More information about ForsaForsa – surveys commissioned by RTL Germany