When it seemed that nothing could worry more about the markets than the increased contagion by omicron and the withdrawal of stimuli, the rises of types and central banks – with the US Federal Reserve to the head – the stress climbing in Ukraine
He has surprised investors again and has seized his fears, causing severe falls in the main European bags and a wave of massive sales that have also come to cryptomones
In the case of IBEX 35, the Spanish index has been left on Monday by 3.18% that places it on the verge of losing 8,400 points (8,417) with all its values in red, with the exception of Siemens Gamesa (+1.8
%) and telephone (+ 0.46%).
The clash in Eastern Europe is also behind the widespread sinking in the main European parquis, with the Paris CAC 40 (-3.97%), the Frankfurt Dax (-3.8%) and Milan FTSE MIB
Losing around 4% in the session.
All of them began the session in red, but the falls were aggravated with the opening of Wall Street, where its main indices go through its seventh consecutive day in negative care at Ukraine and at the meeting that the Fed will celebrate this Tuesday and Wednesday.
With this panorama, the Dow Jones leaves 1.3%;
The S & P 500, 1.75%, and the NASDAQ technological brushes -3%.
The confrontation between Russia and Ukraine in Eastern Europe has introduced a new risk factor for markets that already faced significant challenges in this 2022. Analysts coincide, however, that the clash between NATO countries
And Moscow has imposed any uncertainty that there was so far and has been the main concern, also from the economic point of view.
Much more considering that none dares to vaticinate what will happen in the coming days.
“I do not think the markets can value what can happen in this type of events, the result is only binary at a very simplistic level (Russia invades or not), but even that raises the question of what markets should be answered,”
Aim Chris Iggo, CIO Core Investments of the AXA IM Investment Fund Manager.
“Of course, safe assets would behave very well, the variable income would sink due to the risks for economic growth, and the dollar would shoot against the euro because a war in Ukraine would be a very immediate practical problem for Europe (refugees,
Prices of natural gas even higher, the need for a united response from EU nations). But the thing would be complicated very quickly as for the West’s response, the brutal that the conflict would become, if Belarus would enter.
In the contest and what sanctions or financial and economic actions would take both sides, “he adds.
In Bankinter contemplate three possible scenarios, as things are at this point.
A “good” scenario, which would imply “pacification through diplomacy. Bounce of the bags, although its vigor would be conditioned to what the Fed says on Wednesday”;
A “bad” scenario, which would mean an “Light Invasion, from East and South, but without isolating the three Baltic Republics of Poland through an invasion from Belarus to connect Kaliningrad with the rest of Russia. Depending on the scope of damage and time
that late to stabilize the situation (ie, end of military action), thus short or prolonged will be the falls of the bags “;
and a “terrible” scenario, which would involve all the above and, in addition, the isolation of the 3 Baltic republics.
“This is the least likely scenario and the only one who would force us to make a resounding change of our investment strategy,” they point.
In the event that the “bad scenario” took place, the Entity Analysis Department contemplates that the bags, “and especially the technology,” they would suffer until the situation stabilized.
“The Fed would probably postpone any hardening (slower tapering, rates increases later and any allusion to its balance sheet), as well as the BOE (which would no longer go up to 3 February, as it is now discounted).”
But the bags are not the only ones who are suffering from the doubts of the investors.
Also the cryptomones, with the Bitcoin at the head, try to fit in the last sessions the doubts and fears of investors.
The clearest sample is found in Bitcoin himself, which has come to collapse more than 6% on the day, although at the close of European markets had reduced 2.5% descent that places it around $ 34,400.
“From a technical point of view, lost $ 40,000, prices point to go to seek 30,000. That area is key in the future development of prices. Losing 29,000 would raise all alarms, firing the closure of leveraged operations in
Mass and it would take us to look for 24,000, “explains Javier Molina, spokesman in Spain on the investment platform in Etroo.
The falls also coincide with a moment in which Russia, third country in cryptodivisas mining globally, has proposed to prohibit the use and creation of cryptodivisas.
The collapse is even greater in the case of Ethereum, which only on Monday is left over more than 7.5% and fight to stay over $ 2,200.
