The last Black Friday that was held normally was that of 2019. Trade had been chaining unusual growths for years, both in physical store and online channel.
Then, as Professor Jaume Hugas, expert in ESADE operations, “I thought we had touched the roof, we had reached the peak.”
It has not been like that, and two years later, with a pandemic by means, Spain faces the one that could be “the Black Friday with the most sales of history”, in his opinion.
It will be a black Friday “full of contradictions”: with fewer promotions and more uncertainties but with more intention of spending.
On the one hand, we have a savings embalmed during the pandemic to which you should give out.
“There will be a massive advance of Christmas shopping, more than other years, for the rise in prices and problems with the supply chain,” explains the distribution expert.
Estimates that the increase of sales will be around 25% compared to 2020 and even greater than 2019. The Consultant Deloitte also provides for an intention of spending from Spanish households by 14% higher than that of Christmas 2019. Then we leave 554
Euros, while the forecast for this year will be higher than 600 euros, as detailed in its last study of Christmas consumption.
“The consumer hears to talk about pricing and scarcity of supplies. These factors can invite a better campaign because it is more sensitive to the offers of good prices,” says Pedro Aznar, ESADE economy professor.
Experts believe that the desire to spend (and the content savings that homes have) will weigh more than uncertainties, such as the increase in prices, raw materials and electricity, to which problems are united with the chain
supply derived from the collapse of maritime transport worldwide.
Manufacturers and distributors have been preparing their stock at Christmas months preparing, precisely to avoid the impact on sales of transportation delays and provisioning problems: there is a shortage of raw materials, they are more expensive and too is transportation.
No one foreseen that the lawsuit grew as long as suddenly.
“The chain is harmed, prices have risen and consumers are willing to make family meetings that did not do in 2020 and spend what they could not,” says Huges.
“After two difficult years and with so many restrictions, and thanks to the improvement of the health and economic situation, the consumer is looking forward to resuming his normal life with moderate optimism, wanting to return to shops and restaurants, travel back and celebrate Christmas
With family and friends. Much of the population wants to spend “, in the words of Victoria Larroy, partner of consumer goods and distribution of Deloitte, who presented his study a week ago.
HUGES provides delays in online shipments, although the logistics bodies that the distribution companies manage 106 million shipments, 7% more than last year, to meet demand peaks
It also provides for a price rise due to the increase in costs and problems in the supply chain.
According to Deloitte, this year a relevant percentage of consumers (20%) will delay their purchases to January looking for the rebates.
However, this forecast can be conditioned, as the Christmas period approaches.
60% of consumers affirm that it will choose to acquire gifts, in general, on this black Friday.
58% foresee to buy clothes, footwear and accessories, while 50% want to take advantage of offers on computer, telephony and appliance articles.
Another of the star categories of the Discount Day will be toys, since 37% of consumers plan to take advantage of the BLACK FRIDAY bids to take some of these items.
