“what is certain is that nothing is certain. Even that is not.“ This witticism of the writer Joachim Ringelnatz could not fit better to the events of the first half of the year 2020. An unforeseen pandemic brought the world at almost the same time everywhere to a standstill, and at a cost of more than half a Million people live. You forced to in addition, the economic recession in the knee, as it has for decades no longer exists. And the share prices crashed around the world. Now borders are opened gradually, Restaurants may be visited. The summer is boisterous celebrations on the roads. A return in the second half of the year, so again the normality on the stock exchanges?

Antonia man hamlet

editor in the economy.

F. A. Z. Twitter

From the point of view of Martin Lück, the capital market strategist of Blackrock, the largest asset managers in the world, the markets are still far from normal – even if the market einpreise a quick normalization. The stock market is very nervous, the volatility is twice as high as the average for the past few years. The probability is high that it will be in the second half of the year: “The markets remain volatile.”

possibility of a second wave

The sun also due to the fact that you can’t yet see exactly how quickly the economy will recover. Currently, you have to stand at the beginning of a V-shaped recovery, says Lück. Only the development of the image is not a perfect V – so a quick return to pre-crisis mode – but rather a right-skewed V. in Addition, the possibility of a W-shaped course to stay on there, when after a brief recovery, once again to a shock result. “W could also stand for the shaft – for a second Corona-shaft,” says Lück.

The risk to take especially when the social pressure increases to normalise the public life. This could lead to Corona would loosen restrictions, despite cautionary voices, the capital market strategist. It was interesting in the context of local outbreaks such as in Gütersloh, Germany, for investors seem to play no major role. “I think the market priced in what all hope for: that the infections are only in the slaughterhouses is limited.”

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The investors wögen the measures of monetary and fiscal policy and came to the conclusion that these are suited to build bridges for the economy – until there is a vaccine. This is, however, expected probably at the earliest in the coming year, says Lück, and the optimism of the markets in question: How likely is it that not many companies slipped into insolvency and, in particular, small? How likely is it that short work would have paid money forever, or that the large banks, no loans were? Moreover, you could see a Domino stone after another fall. It is reasonable to assume sporty, the policy can handle it, to receive the patients, the economy, infusions alive artificially.

Opportunistic markets

With a view to the second half of 2020 subjects were also visible, which were advised during the Corona-crisis in the Background: Brexit, trade conflicts, and especially the presidential election in the United States. Just the latter is likely to be for the stock exchanges leading the way. The went out of “Business as usual,” says Lück. But in polls Joe Biden, the presidential candidate of the Democrats lead, had not factored in the market. “Trump is the favorite of the stock market. Capital markets are pragmatic, and opportunistic.“ The main thing is that the President will deliver profits, if he sink about taxes.

“Trump is controversial, but Biden means for the markets are likely to be more uncertainty.” Although Biden was politically more moderate views, however, have radicalized the party behind him more. So it has become for the Democrats, the claim is very popular, to smash the technology companies. Biden within the party could be under a lot of pressure to move in this direction.