Two days after United We Can accuse the CIS of “sweeping home”, the April barometer, released yesterday, ended up breaking the schemes and forecasts of the purple ones. Sumar debuts in the polls of the public body with a 10.6% vote intention at the cost of the collapse of Podemos and a significant cut also to the PSOE.
The powerful irruption of Yolanda Díaz’s platform on the political chessboard corners Podemos, eats ground for the socialists and exalts the figure of the vice president. Until now, it had all been guesswork, rumors, and freehand calculations. But now the CIS draws and reveals hitherto unknown secrets about who it is focusing on – and which parties should be concerned – Sumar.
The transfer of votes provides a lot of information about who looks favorably on Sumar. The purple voter does it mainly, but also the socialist: 7.8% of those who bet on the PSOE in 2019 would vote for Díaz today, a figure that rises to 8.9% if the sympathy he generates is taken into account. Some 600,000 ballots.
However, the big loser at the moment is Podemos: 37.8% of its voters have already gone over to the Sumar ballot. In addition, Díaz’s platform collaterally wears down the loyalty of the vote to Podemos. Currently, only a third of their voters (36.6%) will choose the party in the general elections.
It was already preferred by the Spanish, but the strong entry of its brand in the CIS panel reinforces its leadership even more. Díaz consolidates as the best valued and, with 4.87, is already close to passing and moving away from the rest of the candidates. In addition, half of the voters of United We Can in 2019 want her to be the next president of the Government.
In this regard, Díaz arouses socialist harmony: 14.5% of PSOE voters on 10-N, instead of opting for Pedro Sánchez again, want the leader of Sumar to reach La Moncloa. Only 51.5% of the voters of the PSOE four years ago preferred that the president revalidate the mandate of the next legislature and only maintains a vote fidelity of 63.5%, well below the PP (75.8%) and Vox ( 71.5%).
Sumar, in its premiere at the CIS, borders on the balance between the sexes when it comes to classifying its voters: 8.4% of the men and 8.3% of the women consulted would vote for Yolanda Díaz today. A compensation that contrasts with the imbalance of Unidas Podemos, where there is clearly a greater presence of men (5.8%) than women (4.5%).
The interest aroused by Díaz’s candidacy reaches all segments of the population, although it lands strongly among those between the ages of 45 and 64. In this sector, Sumar manages to surpass Vox and ranks as the third force. It is precisely among the youngest where the vice president fails to fully convince and only 6.6% would choose her ballot in the next elections.
Despite the fact that the working class is more akin to the new formation -15.5% would choose their ballot in the next elections- Sumar also reaches the middle and upper class electorate.
Where Yolanda Díaz’s training does seem to make a distinction is in the level of studies and it is, among those with a higher education, where she finds the greatest support: 12% compared to 3.8% who have no studies.
Large metropolises with more than a million inhabitants, such as Madrid and Barcelona, ??concentrate much of the interest generated by Sumar, thanks in part to the support shown by Más Madrid and the common people in these areas.
The parties of Ione Belarra and Yolanda Díaz would add 17.3% of the votes in the event that they unite their candidacies for the next elections. A growth that translates into 4.6 points compared to the February barometer in which United We Can got 12.7%.
According to the criteria of The Trust Project
