As more and more congressional Democrats urge President Joe Biden to step down from the 2024 presidential race due to concerns about his electability, there is a growing debate within the party about the possibility of a replacement nominee. However, the ultimate decision lies with Biden himself, and he has made it clear that he intends to continue running for president. During a news conference on Thursday night, Biden stated, “I’m determined on running,” and indicated that he would only consider dropping out if polls showed that he had no chance of winning. So far, no polls have indicated such an outcome.
Currently, 19 Democratic members of Congress have called on Biden to withdraw from the race, making up just over 7% of the caucus. Some are worried that a Biden-led ticket could jeopardize other down-ballot candidates, while others have raised concerns about his mental sharpness following a lackluster debate performance.
If Biden were to decide to withdraw from the race at this late stage, it would be unprecedented in modern American political history. While incumbent presidents like Harry Truman and Lyndon B. Johnson chose not to seek re-election, they made their decisions in March of their election years, not mere months before the election. Additionally, no candidate has ever withdrawn after securing enough delegates to win the nomination, as Biden did in March when he became the Democratic nominee.
Should Biden choose to drop out, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) has rules in place to handle the situation. If he withdraws before the Democratic convention on August 19, his pledged delegates would be free to support other candidates, and a new nominee would be chosen at the convention. However, if Biden does not endorse a replacement candidate, the process could become messy, as was the case in 1968 when Vice President Hubert Humphrey was nominated after President Lyndon B. Johnson withdrew from the race.
If Biden were to withdraw after being nominated at the convention, a new nominee would be selected by a majority vote in a special session called by the DNC chair. This scenario occurred in 1972 when Thomas Eagleton withdrew as the vice presidential nominee and Sargent Shriver was chosen to replace him on the ticket.
While Biden has indicated that he has no plans to drop out, some political historians speculate that if he were to do so, he would likely endorse Vice President Kamala Harris as his replacement. Harris would have an advantage in the nomination fight, given that she is already part of the current presidential ticket and would inherit Biden’s campaign funds, which amount to around $91 million.
The Founding Fathers did not anticipate the complex nature of modern political campaigns, including the need to replace a presidential nominee close to Election Day. While they included provisions in the Constitution for replacing a President who is unable to fulfill their duties, they could not have foreseen the intricacies of modern primary systems and conventions that shape presidential nominations today. As we navigate this unprecedented situation, it is clear that American politics continue to evolve in ways that the Founders could not have imagined.