Economy Minister Sergio Massa and “anti-system” ultraliberal economist Javier Milei came first in the first round of the Argentine presidential election on Sunday October 22 and will contest the second round on November 19, according to official results partial.
Sergio Massa, 51, candidate of the government bloc (center left) overcame the handicap of record inflation, coming first with 35.9% of the vote, ahead of Javier Milei, 53, at 30.5%, who confirms its breakthrough since bursting onto the political scene two years ago, according to figures released by the Electoral Authority, with 76% of votes counted.
Rarely since the return of democracy forty years ago has an election been so uncertain for Argentina, the third economy in Latin America with chronic inflation, now among the highest in the world (138% over one year).
A “Trumpist” in the second round
Javier Milei, an ultraliberal “anarcho-capitalist” economist, as he describes himself, who promises to “cut” the State, admires Donald Trump and denies man’s responsibility for climate change, has turned the tables in two years at barely in politics, to the point of finding themselves at the top of voting intentions.
“We are prepared to make the best government in history,” declared Mr. Milei, a polemicist who emerged from the TV sets in 2021. He has since followed a “clear” common thread, against the “parasitic caste”, according to him the Peronists (center left) and liberals who have alternated in power for twenty years. “Let them all go away, let there not be one left!” “, he said at the end of the campaign.
According to polls, which have underestimated him in the past, Mr. Milei, 53, was credited with around 35% of voting intentions, ahead of Sergio Massa (30-31%), Minister of the Economy 51-year-old and candidate of the government bloc (center left), and Patricia Bullrich (26%) of the opposition alliance (center right), a 67-year-old former security minister under liberal President Maurico Macri (2015 -2019). To be elected in the first round, a candidate must obtain at least 45% of the vote, or 40% but 10 points ahead of the runner-up.
Massa, Minister of Inflation, “more politician than technician”
It may seem astonishing that the minister of an over-indebted economy, with inflation among the highest in the world (138%) and whose currency is depreciating, is qualified for the second round. It is the whole art of Sergio Massa, 51 years old, elegant and lively lawyer by training, but full-time politician for twenty-five years, to have traced his furrow to the point of appearing as the least bad option for an unpopular executive.
Centrist, once liberal, he was chief of staff of Peronist president Cristina Kirchner, then candidate in the presidential election in 2015 against these same Peronists, before joining them. In 2022, he was entrusted with a “super ministry”, a firefighter at the bedside of an economy in intensive care.
More “political” than technician, man of dialogue and above all pragmatic, Massa was able to maneuver by maintaining dialogue with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the required adjustments. While keeping the ear of the unions, and without starting a social fire. But without stopping the reduction in purchasing power. A bit like a doctor “who has not cured the disease, but whose patient is not yet dead,” mocked Clarin, a daily close to the opposition.
In the campaign, he tried hard to dissuade the “leap into the void” with Mr. Milei, to ensure that the worst of the crisis was over, with the end of a historic drought – which deprived the country of 20 billion of agro-export dollars. He promised a “government of national unity”, a challenge in a polarized country.
Economic uncertainties
Argentines have learned to live with the uncertainty of the next day: 12.4% inflation in August, 12.7% in September (a monthly record in thirty-two years) and price tags fluctuating from one week to the next. ‘other. And a daily struggle to beat prices: purchases at the start of the month, juggling between various credits.
The peso tumbled in two years from 99 to 365 per dollar at the official rate – and nearly 1,000 pesos at the parallel street rate, a veritable “barometer of anxiety” for Argentines, according to Mr. Gedan. And they do not forget the shock of the day after the August primary, a “rehearsal” for the presidential election, which saw the surprise breakthrough of Mr. Milei (30%): the peso, under pressure, had been devalued by 20 %. “On Monday, Argentina continues (…) we must convey tranquility,” Sergio Massa wanted to reassure on Sunday.
