The presidential election in Egypt will take place “on December 10, 11 and 12”, and not in spring 2024 as permitted by the Constitution, the head of the electoral commission, Judge Walid Hassan Hamza, announced on Monday September 25. And “the final results will be published in the Official Journal on December 18,” he added. Mr. Hamza also gave a detailed voting schedule: candidacies must be submitted in October, the electoral campaign will take place from November 9 to 29, and Egyptian expatriates will vote from December 1 to 3.

Several senior officials had assured that the vote would be held in the spring, the maximum period provided for by the Constitution and as was the case for the previous presidential election, in 2018.

This presidential election, the third in which the current president, Abdel Fattah Al-Sissi, could compete, already promises to be under tension for the head of state, who came to power by deposing the Islamist Mohamed Morsi in 2013 before being then elected very comfortably in 2014 and then re-elected in 2018 against a single candidate who claimed to be his supporter.

Mr. Sisi has not yet officially announced his candidacy but is expected to do so soon, according to several experts. He will appear at a time when purchasing power continues to melt in this country of 105 million inhabitants: inflation is running at 40%, the 50% devaluation has caused the prices of goods to jump – almost all imported in Egypt – in recent months, and the recent bonuses and increases announced by the president for civil servants and retirees have had little effect.

The economic question, the main issue in the election

Egypt is bearing the brunt of the war between Russia and Ukraine – the world’s main suppliers of wheat, of which Cairo is the leading importer – and its huge tourism sector has never really recovered since the Revolution of 2011 which toppled Hosni Mubarak. The economic question will be the main issue in the December election, in a country where two thirds of the inhabitants live below or just above the poverty line.

So far, only one candidate has entered the campaign: Ahmed Al-Tantawi. This former MP, known for his outbursts in Parliament, denounces “crimes” committed by the “security forces” against his teams and his supporters. At least thirty-five of them were detained, and Mr. Tantawi revealed that spyware had been installed on his phone since September 2021.

Farid Zahran, head of the Egyptian Democratic and Social Party, has also said he intends to enter the race, without having so far organized tours or meetings. Another opponent, Hicham Kassem, at the head of a coalition of liberal parties, was recently sentenced to six months in prison, a sentence which deprives him of any participation in the campaign and the vote.

The government recently launched with great fanfare a “national dialogue” supposed to give voice to the liberal opposition reduced to tatters for a decade. The Islamist opposition, mainly the Muslim Brotherhood of Mohamed Morsi, is banned; and its supporters have been killed, imprisoned, gone into exile, or are now banned from public debate.