There are increasing signs that Russia is planning a new major attack for late February – possibly even on two fronts. Kyiv expects that up to half a million soldiers could be deployed. Requests for more Western military aid are growing louder.
According to police, at least three people were killed and around 20 others injured in a Russian missile attack in Kramatorsk in eastern Ukraine. A residential building was hit, the Ukrainian police said. During the night, rescue workers searched the rubble for survivors and other possible victims. Kramatorsk is located in the Donetsk region. This has been fiercely contested for months, and taking it completely is one of Russia’s key war goals in Ukraine.
Many experts, including the Ukrainian government, suspect that the current Russian attacks in eastern Ukraine could be the harbingers of a new major military offensive that will come close to the first anniversary of the Russian invasion on February 24. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said in an interview on French television: “Given that (the Russians) live by symbols, we think they will try something around February 24.” He again called for more arms supplies in order to be able to meet the enemy.
“They could launch a two-front offensive,” Reznikov said of the Russian troops. According to him, the Ukrainian government estimates that Russia has mobilized around half a million soldiers for the operation in Ukraine – far more than the 300,000 that Moscow officially states.
The fact that most of the ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet have returned to their bases also indicates that a new attack is being prepared, according to the spokeswoman for the Southern Command in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Natalya Humenyuk. Russia has been launching heavy rocket attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure since October. Most cruise missiles are launched from Black or Caspian Sea ships and strategic bombers.
According to Humenyuk, there are only ten ships left on the open sea, most of them submarines. Usually there are significantly more. “They flex their muscles in the sea for some time, demonstrating their presence and control over the situation, and then head to the bases, where they usually prepare for maneuvers for a massive missile attack,” she justified her suspicion of an impending attack with experience previous attacks.
