All of Berlin can go to the polls on February 12th. An urgent application before the Federal Constitutional Court, on the other hand, fails. However, the very last word on the matter has not yet been spoken. So it remains exciting.
Politics in the state of Berlin is taking a deep breath: One and a half years after the breakdown election, the Federal Constitutional Court decided that the complete repetition of the elections to the House of Representatives and the district parliaments can take place on February 12th. However, this does not answer all questions:
What’s next?
First of all, the organizational preparations for the election can continue. There isn’t much time left until February 12th. The election notifications have been sent out, millions of ballot papers have been printed, more voting booths have been procured and rooms for the polling stations have been determined. And: In practice, the election has already begun, postal voters have been able to cast their votes for four weeks. Since then, almost 700,000 people have requested relevant documents. If the highest German court had now stopped all of this, from the point of view of state returning officer Stephan Bröchler, it would have been a “very significant intervention in an election that was already underway”. Quite apart from the millions that the preparations have already cost.
What does this mean for the election campaign?
Parties and many leading politicians who are conducting a much shorter election campaign for the repeat election with considerable effort, many helpers and a lot of money are relieved. The investments were not, it seems, in vain. The election takes place, on the home stretch everyone wants to give their all again. On February 10, a number of parties are planning large campaign closing events.
How is the political situation in Berlin?
Since 2016, the city has been governed by the SPD, the Greens and the Left. After the election on September 26, 2021, which was later declared completely invalid by the state constitutional court due to glitches and electoral errors, they renewed their alliance. Since then, the SPD politician and former Federal Minister for Family Affairs Franziska Giffey has been the governing mayor. Recent polls see the CDU ahead with around 23 percent. The SPD and the Greens follow – depending on the survey – with 19 to 21 percent and are therefore fighting for second place. The left is in the polls at 11 or 12 percent, the AfD at around 11 and the FDP at 6 to 7 percent. At the moment, the CDU, Greens and SPD have realistic chances of winning the election – the election campaign is correspondingly intense. Even the coalition SPD and Greens are attacking each other.
What happens after the election?
If the survey result were also the election result, different tripartite alliances led by the CDU and its top candidate Kai Wegner would be possible. The FDP would at least be ready for an alliance with the SPD and CDU. In the case of Giffey’s SPD and the Greens, on the other hand, there are considerable question marks as to whether they would go together with the CDU. Especially since red-green-red would still have a majority according to these numbers. Should the three continue, Giffey could remain in City Hall if the SPD were ahead of the Greens. If these were ahead of the SPD, the Greens’ top candidate and mobility senator Bettina Jarasch would lay claim to Giffey’s post. As in the previous election, Giffey is playing gambles and is not committed to a coalition. The Greens and the Left, on the other hand, have declared that they want to continue the current tripartite alliance.
Is there a threat of repeat elections?
According to the decision of the Federal Constitutional Court (Case No. 2 BvR 2189/22), the scenario of at least a partial repetition of the repeat election does not seem to be ruled out. Because the court only refused in the urgent procedure to order a postponement of the vote at short notice. It did not deal with the content of the question raised by the Berlin plaintiffs as to whether a complete re-election is really necessary and constitutional or whether a partial re-election might have been sufficient. And whether the state constitutional court should have appealed to the federal constitutional court before its judgment in November. This – as the lawyers say – decision in the main is pending. And so the results of the repeat election on February 12, the subsequent constitution of a new House of Representatives and the formation of a new Berlin Senate (state government) remain a question mark until this point has finally been clarified in Karlsruhe.
