2022 was full of crises: corona pandemic, war in Ukraine, supply chain problems, energy price explosion. Nevertheless, the Thuringian economy has proven to be quite robust, according to Economics Minister Tiefensee. What’s next in 2023?
Erfurt (dpa/th) – After the crisis year 2022, in which Thuringia’s economy grew anyway, Economics Minister Wolfgang Tiefensee (SPD) expects difficult months. “Nevertheless, there is no reason to panic. As of now, we will very likely get away with a black eye,” Tiefensee told the German Press Agency in Erfurt.
According to the forecasts of economic researchers, a sharp slump in the economy is not to be expected. “It is more likely that the economy will move sideways,” said the minister. “In my estimation, this phase will last the entire year 2023, and from 2024 the economy will start to pick up again.”
Thuringia had achieved economic growth of almost two percent in the first half of 2022 – industry proved to be the driving force again. For the year as a whole, an increase in economic output in Bavaria “of still one percent can be assumed,” Tiefensee said. The Thuringian and German economy had done better than many had expected despite the crises with the energy price explosion, high inflation and supply chain problems.
In order to support the economy, the country also relied on financial aid offers for companies in 2023, but also on the promotion of investments in new systems and technologies. Tiefensee: “We have to carefully distinguish between the general economic situation, which is not that bad, and the situation of individual companies, which can certainly be hit hard by energy price increases, supply chain problems and a lack of staff.”
Positive factors include a slight relaxation on the energy markets, the energy price brakes that took effect at the beginning of the year, the high demand for skilled workers and the federal and state aid programs. Tiefensee expects this to dampen uncertainty among businesses and consumers. “But the situation is volatile and there are many risks,” said the minister.
Economic research institutes are assuming a slight decline in gross domestic product in 2023, and the Federal Government’s Advisory Council of minus 0.2 percent. The IWH in Halle expects the German economy to stagnate and a small increase of 0.2 percent in eastern Germany. The Ifo Institute expects a mild recession close to stagnation for eastern Germany in the winter months. The Ifo Institute cited high inflation and the energy shortage this winter as the reason.
However, all forecasts point to the risk that the development could also turn out to be significantly worse. This could happen as a result of a gas shortage or a very sharp slump in the consumer climate.
