In 2008, at their Bucharest summit, the allies wrote that Georgia and Ukraine “will become members of NATO” at some point in the future. That point, on the 23rd of the final declaration, did not prevent Russia from attacking the first month later and six years later from annexing Crimea. Having learned the lessons, and after the terrible invasion of February 2022, the Atlantic Alliance committed itself after months of permanent aid, to empty its arsenals to support Kiev and to gradually exceed all self-imposed limits, to go further. He said that this time, in Lithuania, he would go further, that he would reinforce the message of open doors and that he would do everything possible to try to fulfill the enormous Ukrainian hopes. But the result has not been what Volodimir Zelenski dreamed of. “We will be in a position to extend an invitation to Ukraine to join the Alliance when the Allies agree and the conditions are met,” point 11 of the text agreed on Tuesday by the 31 members is limited to saying.
It is the most that NATO can offer to a country in an open war, occupied in the East, diminished in its capabilities. A country that, according to the rules of the Alliance, is not prepared, nor can it contribute to collective security. Everyone believes that the country’s sacrifice is an existential contribution to Europe’s security, but right now its entry would pose much more risk than otherwise, for obvious reasons. Hence, there can be no exact calendar, there is no invitation or, as they aspired in kyiv, some kind of automatism that would indicate that as the confrontations end, an invitation will arrive.
Zelensky’s disappointment has been on display. There is the word, “invitation”, for the first time in history, it is something that two days ago, literally, was not contemplated. It is the “strongest language ever used,” according to General Secretary Stoltenberg. And the Member Action Plan (MAP) is considered completed, the formal process that was required of the country before being able to aspire to membership, a way of paving the way. But it was not enough. “Absurd”, “lack of respect”, “motivation for Russia to continue its terror” or “uncertainty is weakness” are the expressions with which the Ukrainian president has referred to the language chosen by his friends. He really hoped for changes at the last moment, that his renowned persuasion through digital pressure would work, but it was impossible. NATO does not improvise, it does not take sharp turns. He had been outlining this declaration for weeks, a very complex balance with 31 sides, and it is as far as its members are willing to go.
The formula is vague enough to fit everything and nothing. “When the Allies agree and the conditions are met” points to the end of hostilities, because Germany, for example, entered despite being divided, decades before reunification. But there was no fighting, bombing, danger of nuclear power plants (or weapons) exploding at any moment. Not even in Moscow, then, did they recover from threats of military coups. It is progress, it has gone a little further, but in the world of emotions, big statements and bombast know little.
NATO was conceived to confront the USSR, and Russia continues to be its great raison d’être, but precisely for this reason it is easy to forget that in Romania, 15 years ago, Vladimir Putin was invited, participated in meetings and declared that he was not the It is your country’s duty to decide who should or should not be part of external alliances. And that there was such a close collaboration that joint peace missions between the two traditionally warring blocs were even considered. But that is in the past and it seems unthinkable to build something solid again on the ashes of all the Ukrainian dead.
Today’s 90-point text covers all open fronts, military, security, intelligence, the southern and eastern flanks, nuclear fears, terrorism and “China’s coercive” policies. But the focus was on Ukraine’s two obsessions: the accession equation and “security guarantees.” That is, what can a military Alliance that is not formally delivering lethal equipment do to give peace of mind to a partner repeatedly attacked by its main enemy, and all this without ending in an annihilating war.
Despite the Ukrainian disappointment, the Alliance, today in Vilnius, offers much more to a neighbor than ever before. Beyond the supply of arms and ammunition in the last year and a half, the plans to give up to 500 million euros a year in the Comprehensive Assistance Package for non-lethal equipment, to include Zelensky and his ministers in all meetings, the shared intelligence. Apart from that, a NATO-Ukraine Council has been created, the second format of this type in its entire history, after the one created to improve dialogue with Russia, but which was blown up and has been inactive since the invasion. The first forum in which they will not be invited, but a full-fledged party, speaking face to face and without partners like Hungary being able to torpedo, as they have been doing for decades due to disputes over the conditions of the Magyar minority in Ukraine.
Today’s consensus statement reaffirms “unwavering solidarity with the Government and people of Ukraine in the heroic defense of their nation, their land and our shared values” and insists that the West remains “firm in our commitment to further intensify support politically and practically to Ukraine as it continues to defend its independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders. And we will continue our support as long as it is needed.”
But when it comes to getting into those security guarantees, which diplomatic sources would prefer to define as “locks or security arrangements”, the answer has to be another. It will have two modalities: bilateral on the one hand and at the G7 level, in parallel, on the other. “We fully support Ukraine’s right to choose its own security arrangements,” the statement said, but without being able to go into any specific details to avoid trouble. “Ukraine’s future lies in NATO. We reaffirm the commitment we made at the 2008 Summit in Bucharest and today we recognize that Ukraine’s path to full Euro-Atlantic integration has gone beyond the need for the Membership Action Plan. Ukraine it has become increasingly interoperable and politically integrated with the Alliance, and has made substantial progress on its path of reform,” the text reads.
Some countries, as they already did with Sweden and Finland, as soon as they both took a historic turn in their defense policy asking for entry in 2022, are going to offer “bilateral guarantees”. It is not something equivalent to Article 5 of collective defense of the Alliance, whereby if you attack one you attack all. Not even 4, which contemplates the previous steps. It is more about formalizing that whatever happens there will be military assistance in the future, weapons, tanks, whatever is needed. And that is why Germany, France or the United Kingdom have approved the appointment to announce more shipments, just as the US did last week, including the controversial cluster bombs. It is not a legal commitment, but a political one. It is a message to Moscow stressing that it stands alone and that Ukraine will have the economic and military powers of the West behind it time and again.
“NATO does not seek confrontation and does not pose a threat to Russia, but in light of its hostile policies and actions, we cannot consider Russia as our partner. Any change in our relationship depends on Russia stopping its aggressive behavior and complying fully with international law. We remain ready to keep communication channels open with Moscow to manage and mitigate risks, prevent escalation and increase transparency. At the same time, we will continue to consult and assess the implications of Russia’s policies and actions for our security, and we will respond to Russia’s threats and hostile actions in a united and responsible manner,” the statement concluded.
According to the criteria of The Trust Project
