On August 24, 2022, João Lourenço was re-elected President of the Republic of Angola for a five-year term. Faced with a delicate socio-economic situation and a reinvigorated political opposition, his task was not going to be easy. As elsewhere on the continent, the thorny problem of the third term in a row is already arising in Angola. And, this question seems to seriously concern the local political landernau. How does the Head of State intend to do this and above all why does it seem inevitable in the Angolan context that this subject be quickly and effectively addressed?
During a meeting last August with an Angolan personality, I asked him how he saw the elections. To my surprise, he asked me if I wanted to talk about the presidential election of 2022 or that of 2027. And confided to me that President Lourenço’s main concern at the moment was the 2027 elections. Why? Because quite simply he will not be able to present himself there.
In the light of the latest political news, this can be understood. The result of the recent elections was much closer than expected (51.17% in favor of the MPLA) and the ruling party even lost its absolute majority in the National Assembly (124 deputies out of a total of 220). Consequently, any constitutional reform, and a fortiori that allowing a third term in a row, will necessarily have to rally opposition votes. This seems unlikely in the current state of affairs.
However, it would be very bad to know João Lourenço, his political career and his ambition, to believe that he has resigned himself to leaving power at the end of his current mandate. Like his predecessor, under a more debonair appearance, he is a man of power, a kind of “political animal” with multiple springs.
The president wants to leave his mark on history and he believes that ten years is not enough time to bring about the reforms he deems necessary. The task is immense and in his view justifies a longer commitment. At the same time, the political staff is gradually renewed within his party, giving it a new base, younger, but also much more feminine. The Vice-President of the Republic is a woman, Esperança Costa, as is the President of the National Assembly, Caroline Cerqueira. And, both are positively noticed in their attributions.
The Jornal de Negocios also recently echoed a somewhat incredible scenario that would see Esperança Costa run for the presidency in 2027 with João Lourenço as vice-president and, if elected, “would give up her post to personal reasons” a few months after his election in favor of his running mate. All of this is naturally based on misogynistic considerations highlighted by the newspaper, including that a representative of the “weaker” sex is “theoretically more vulnerable and manipulable”.
The accession of a woman to the supreme magistracy would first of all constitute recognition of the important role played by the fairer sex in Angolan society. Then, it would undoubtedly facilitate the “relaxation” of political life. Thus, since being elected President of the National Assembly, Caroline Cerqueira has shown herself to be more open to dialogue, giving more space to Unita, particularly within parliamentary committees. This is just one example.
But in the end, wouldn’t the ideal profile for the function be embodied in the person of João Lourenço’s wife, Ana Afonso Dias. The first lady presents a well-stocked CV since she has notably been Minister of Planning and administrator at the World Bank representing the constituency of Angola, Nigeria and South Africa. She is credited with a role of adviser who is very listened to by her husband and, therefore, well aware of the affairs of the country. She is far from the classic role of president’s wife as in the time of her predecessor. She is really very active and more and more publicized.
This could lead to the scenario, in 2027, of a simple exchange of functions within the presidential couple. This would circumvent the thorny issue of the third consecutive term. This scenario would not be new since it worked in Russia between Putin and Medvedev. As a former student of the Lenin Higher Academy in Moscow, João Lourenço is not unaware of this example. He may be considering innovating by applying it to his own couple.
This is of course only conjecture assuming that Ana Dias is nominated as a candidate by her political party and that she wins the 2027 elections. However, these two conditions are not so obvious as that. The MPLA does not like dynastic schemas and certain tenors, dissatisfied with the recent electoral results, are biding their time. As for the opposition, carried by an increasingly dissatisfied civil society, it could win the day.
* Daniel Ribant is a specialist in Angola and former advisor in economic diplomacy at the Belgian Embassy in Luanda. He is notably the author of L’Angola de A à Z and Força Angola, published by L’Harmattan.
