The military operation by land and air that Israel launched in the early hours of Sunday in Jenin seemed to come to an end on Tuesday night with the start of the withdrawal of troops. What will not end is the spiral of violence that has returned some scenes of the Second Intifada to the Jenin refugee camp after once again becoming the great stronghold of the Palestinian militias. In 48 hours of the largest Israeli offensive in the last 20 years in that area of ??the northern West Bank, 12 Palestinians died, the vast majority of them armed forces from Islamic Jihad and Hamas, and a hundred were injured, while a soldier died in one of fighting with militiamen. During this period, a dozen Israelis were injured by two Palestinians in an intentional hit-and-run and stabbing in Tel Aviv and Bnei Brak.

Shortly before two in the morning and when the army continued with its withdrawal from Jenin, Palestinians from the Gaza Strip launched five projectiles against various towns in southern Israel in the first attack from that area since the start of the offensive. All of them were intercepted by the Israeli defensive system. With no hope on the horizon, the West Bank seems doomed to two scenarios: the current and worrying situation or its deterioration, which could lead to a new Intifada in the medium term if the weakened Palestinian National Authority (PNA) completely collapses. Here are the key players in the crisis. ISRAEL Its decision to go from one more raid to launching a larger offensive in time (from several hours to two days), in soldiers (from one hundred to a thousand) and in resources (using of armed drones) is explained in the first place by the death of 24 people in Palestinian attacks in the first six months of 2023 and the government of Benjamin Netanyahu. The increase in armed attacks against Israelis with Jenin as the point of origin (planning) and return (hiding) raised the pressure on the army and the coalition where, in addition, two small ultranationalist parties demand a large-scale operation aware that it is only a few months accused the former executive of “weakness in the face of terrorism”. Its leaders are not the ones who make decisions like the current offensive (reserved for Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant after consultations with security organizations), but they do influence, for example, the expansion in the colonies in the West Bank, taking advantage of Netanyahu’s it needs to govern in the absence of alternatives with the center-left. The deep division in Israel, as a result of the controversial proposal for judicial reform, is seen by its enemies as a sign of weakness. Operations like the one this week also seek to restore the deterrence capacity beyond the borders of Jenin and the words of Netanyahu, who hours before the start of the withdrawal of his soldiers from the field said that they will not allow it to “return to being a city -refuge of terror” after an offensive that, according to him, aborted many attacks. YENINEThe refugee camp, with around 14,000 inhabitants in less than half a square kilometer, lived a dramatic 48 hours, causing the flight of 3,000 people. The motivation of those who proclaim themselves “liberators of Palestine”, the territorial, national, religious (radicalized) and economic factor (35% unemployment), the social networks that create heroes with rifles to emulate, the support of Hamas (from Gaza and abroad) and the enormous amount of weapons available form an explosive cocktail in Jenin where the security forces of the PNA lost control. So far this year in the West Bank and Israel, more than 140 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli fire, the vast majority of them militants in armed clashes or attackers killed in their attacks or riots, but also civilians. Unlike Gaza, where Hamas rules with an iron fist and can impose a truce with Israel, Jenin has an alliance of militias under the umbrella of the so-called “Jenin Brigade” and the baton above all of Islamic Jihad that promises to continue the tradition of the field of leading “the resistance armed”. ANPCreated in the Oslo Accords between Israel and the PLO in the 1990s, the ANP is experiencing its worst moments since the 2005 presidential elections that gave power to Abu Mazen. While he has not set foot in Gaza since 2007, when the split between Hamas and Al Fatah became official, the veteran Rais faces a frustrating situation in the West Bank. Internally, the PNA has lost a lot of legitimacy, as many Palestinians denounce it as a corrupt and authoritarian entity. Despite the fact that on Monday he announced the suspension of contacts and security cooperation with Israel in response to what he called a “war crime in Jenin”, Abu Mazen is still seen by many as “a collaborator of the occupier”. In addition, it must deal since 2014 with the paralysis of the negotiations that lead to the Palestinian State, with the most right-wing Israeli government that is promoting more than any other in the past the construction of colonies in the territory occupied in the 1967 war despite the US opposition and the chaos in Jenin.

It is not surprising that in Ramallah there are those who advise him to announce the end of the ANP. Something that today Abu Mazen denies when considering that he would go against the interests of the Palestinian people. This is also opposed by Netanyahu, accused by many analysts in his own country of not having taken measures in recent years to strengthen the figure of Abu Mazen and the role of the PNA. Today, the Likud leader does not want to and cannot hold negotiations with Abu Mazen based on the two-state solution, but he is aware that without the PNA the situation would surely be much worse for Israel starting at the security level. IRAN The increasingly publicized and frequent meetings with the leaders of Hamas and Islamic Jihad confirm Tehran’s support, which in recent months has gone beyond the ideological and economic aspect. In the face of Israeli airstrikes against members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and its militias in Syria and arms convoys to Hezbollah in Lebanon in recent years, Iran decided to respond in Israel’s backyard, the West Bank. Hence, it not only encourages the Palestinians to attack their great enemy, but also plans, finances and helps with weapons that it introduces into the West Bank. The strategy is to create and lead a common front against Israel from the north (Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon), south (Gaza) and center (the West Bank).

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