Munich (dpa/lby) – If Russian gas deliveries were stopped in the coming six months, Germany’s economic output would collapse by 12.7 percent, according to a study by the Prognos Institute. Germany would “slide into a deep recession,” said chief economist Michael Böhmer on Tuesday in Munich. “Arithmetically, around 5.6 million jobs would be affected by the consequences,” said Bertram Brossardt, CEO of the Bavarian Business Association (vbw). The vbw commissioned the study.
Böhmer said industry accounts for 36 percent of gas consumption in Germany. Without Russian gas, it would only have half of it. To generate electricity, it could partially switch to other energies. But gas is just as indispensable for the chemical industry as it is for the glass industry or the rolling mills in the steel industry. Without paint, glass or steel, the automotive industry and many other sectors would be in trouble. The damage would be greatest in the auto and food industries. A large part of the missing products could be replaced by purchases abroad, but “in the end it spreads to the entire economy,” said Böhmer.
The study examined the consequences of a sudden Russian gas supply stop from July 1 to the end of December. In contrast to some earlier studies, Prognos took a look at individual production processes and their importance for other sectors, emphasized Böhmer. With strong efforts, a quarter of the gas consumption could be replaced or saved. This also includes, for example, heating apartments a little less. But the industry would have to reckon with a coverage gap of 50 percent as early as July. “In total, there is a risk of a loss of value creation of 193 billion euros” in six months, said Brossardt and warned in preparation: “Putin can turn off the gas tap at any time.”
In the short term, gas can be replaced by oil and coal to generate electricity. The last three German nuclear power plants accounted for about 6 percent of electricity generation, and their lifetime could be extended. In the long term, the ambitious expansion of all renewable energies will slow down electricity prices and free one-sided dependencies in the energy sector, said Brossardt.
