In the middle of the noise of drums of war, diplomacy rides again without knowing if it is your last chance.
The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet this Friday with the Foreign Minister of Russia, Serguei Lavrov.
Blinken arrived on Wednesday to Kiev to be seen with Ukrainian president Volodimir Zelensky, a new sample of support from an American ally that fears that Russia launch an attack on Ukraine “in a very sudden way,” Blinken explained, which announced to the Ukrainians who announced that
They should be prepared for a difficult days.
Russia has plans to increase “even more” force at the borders of Ukraine, Blinken predicted, before asking Russian President, Vladimir Putin, who chooses the “peaceful way”.
Eight years after the annexation of Crimea and the start of war in Donbras, Ukraine has no short-term prospects to enter the EU or NATO.
But Russia feels threatened by the growing ties of Kiev with the West.
Although it is not clear that Moscow has met until now the logistics units that I would need to launch an immediate attack, these days Russia has reduced its staff at its embassy in Kiev: a score civilians, especially wives and children of diplomats, left Russia
two weeks.
Putin has also transferred troops to Belarus to perform joint military exercises.
He has the option of attacking neighboring Ukraine from the north, from the east and also from the south, if you take into account not only the troops that he has in Crimea but those who have been parked in Moldova.
Blinken promised the Ukrainians that Washington would continue to provide advocacy assistance to Kiev and renewed the promise of severe sanctions against Russia in case of a new invasion.
The Ukrainian president appreciated the help: “I would like to personally thank President Biden and the US administration of the military support to Ukraine, and also to increase this attendance.”
Shortly before, the Vice Minister of Defense of Ukraine thanked the United Kingdom the delivery of antitank weapons.
Canada advanced that it also values to provide that kind of support.
Given this, the Kremlin warned that deliveries of arms to Ukraine only serve to increase tension.
On Friday Blinken will meet with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia.
Washington and Moscow explore if there is still a diplomatic way to avoid a conflict in Eastern Europe.
Some analysts point out this appointment as probably the last stop before the “Train Shock”.
Russia has warned that the tension is increasing while in the Kremlin are still awaiting a clear response – and in writing – to its extensive demands of Western Security Guarantees: that NATO does not approach its borders and also do not place missiles nearby
.
Blinken declared that he will not take him to him with Lavrov any document.
“We need to see where we are and if there are options to continue with diplomacy and with dialogue that again, as I said, it is the best way,” he said as he spoke at a press conference.
Blinken explained to the diplomats of the United States Embassy in Kiev that was taking a Russian concentration of tens of thousands of troops near the border with Ukraine “without provocation or reason”.
From Moscow responded with a similar message: The Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia, Serguei Riabkov, asked the West to stop supplying arms to Ukraine and described the situation of European security as a “critical”.
Pessimism has also been installed in the field of experts.
Vladimir Frolov, a former Russian diplomat who is now an external policy analyst, told Reuters that Moscow will not calm down with an offer of US and NATO weapons control talks.
The Russians seem to look for a much more radical redesign of the European security balance.
“The hopes are scarce, the positions are incompatible,” he said.
Rob Lee -The center of analysis of strategies and technologies, a Russian entity focused on defense policy – believes that the key is that Moscow considers that Kiev will remain hostile and is increasing his defensive capabilities.
That is why Russia believes that “the costs of inaction are now greater than those of a military escalation,” since then Moscow will have it harder.
