“The global economy has almost stopped.” Emmanuel Macron him in even in be, like all great political leaders or economic. After the health crisis, the economic crisis. A crisis that will affect the entire global economy. Recession, debt, unemployment… The Figaro reviews the forecasts of the world’s leading economies for the year 2020.
growth rates historically low,
global growth is expected to fall by 6% by 2020, according to recent forecasts from the OECD. “In the months of march and April, there have been breaks of activity ever since the Second world War. This reflects the confinement observed almost everywhere”, explains Philippe Waechter, chief economist at Ostrum Asset. “This is very special, does it, is that it has both a shutdown of the economy very fast, but also synchronized. We are all in the same bag.” The numbers are dizzying : -11,4% expected from us according to the OECD (the government table to -11%), -11,3% in Italy, -11,5% in the United Kingdom, -9,1% for the euro area, or 7.3 per cent expected in the United States.
a Few forecasts of growth to 2020, “Le Figaro”
“We see a very large divergence between the countries,” begins Eric Dor, director of economic studies at IESEG. So why does France seem most affected ? According to him, it is a matter of “differences of severity in the measures of containment.” Same goes for Philippe Waechter. “Insee reiterated that our economy was running at 65% capacity. By comparison, in Germany it was 80%.”
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According to him, three factors will play on the recovery. “The effect of economic policies put in place, the potential changes of behavior on the savings and the dynamics of bankruptcy of the companies”, details of-t-he, recalling that “all of these elements create uncertainty about what will happen”. According to him, the coming months are “crucial” for the recovery can be done more quickly, perhaps as early as 2021. Eric Dor warns : all of these numbers are to be taken “with a grain of salt”. A second wave that would hit our economies, or even China, for example, would naturally worsen these forecasts, because of “the interdependence of the countries between them”.
Everywhere, the unemployment explodes
Second element impressive as well as disturbing, that of unemployment. Here, too, the figures plunge to a different degree. Always according to the OECD, with the assumption of a “shock only”), discarding therefore the possible second wave accompanied by a reconfinement, France will see its unemployment rate go from 7.8% in the first quarter to 12.3% in the fourth. 8.5 per cent against 12.4 per cent in Italy, 3.9% against 9.7% in the United Kingdom, or a 13.9% compared with 21.8% in Spain. In the United States, the forecasts of the unemployment of the OECD focuses on a passage from 3.8% in the first quarter of the year to 10.4% in the last. In Germany, the explosion of the unemployment rate is not, however, expected : 3.4% in the first quarter against a modest 5% in the fourth.
Comparisons of estimates of unemployment rates between the T1 and the T4 in 2020, “Le Figaro”
In the analysis of these figures, “it is not to be overlooked are the differences in the sectoral specialisation of the country,” says Eric Dor. The countries of the mediterranean basin will be most affected, due to a decrease in colossal tourist activities, ” he says. He also cites the French as Spain or Portugal. “Some regions, like the Canary islands, live only on tourism. There, the impact will be destructive”, analysis-t-it. In the same sense, if the industrial exchanges struggling to resume, Germany will have a stronger impact, he warns.
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“profile type, that is, first quarter was bad, second worse and then a significant recovery in the third and fourth quarters,” says Philippe Waechter. He then quotes the 2.5 million jobs already re-created in the United States in a few days. “Half of them, it is the reopening of the restaurants,” he says. “We can be effects very quickly”, once again, the economist.
in the Face of the stimulus packages, the debts are increasing
The debate rages in France and elsewhere : what to do with our debts ?How to pay back these loans colossal of the four corners of the world ? In France, the debt at the end of the year should amount to 121% of GDP. This is twenty percentage points higher year on year. But France is no exception. +17 points for Germany, 19 points for the United States (forecast as at 1 October 2020 according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget), or 20 points for Spain.
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the scale of the major global powers, liabilities are expected to increase fairly equivalent. For years to come, they will be more of the economic recovery and could, then, take different paths. Here, the data for China are not known.
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