A former president indicted would be a first in US history. Yet, as Donald Trump has said himself, he expects to be “arrested” this Tuesday, March 22. US justice is responsible for deciding on a case in which the former head of state is suspected of misrepresentation and violation of laws on election financing. He allegedly paid $130,000 to a pornographic actress, Stormy Daniels, in the weeks leading up to the 2016 election, to cover up an alleged extramarital affair.

While his lawyer Susan Necheles denounces “political prosecutions”, Donald Trump called on his supporters to demonstrate. What scenarios emerge if the former head of state, candidate for re-election in 2024, is indicted?

According to former federal prosecutor Renato Mariotti, even if the billionaire is charged, it is likely that Donald Trump will voluntarily go to court, where he could be placed under arrest. If the prosecution decides to indict the former president, a court meeting would be agreed between the prosecutors and his lawyers so that he can be served with any charges against him.

“He probably wouldn’t come to court through the front door,” for security reasons and to avoid making “a spectacle” of it, AFP judge Robert McDonald, a professor of criminal law at the University of New Haven and former member of the Secret Service, the American agency responsible for protecting high American personalities.

“We would then take his fingerprints, we would register him,” Renato Mariotti explained on Twitter on Saturday, in particular by taking the famous American mug shots. Then, after appearing before a judge, he would come out of court free after paying any bail.

But the former US president has a sense of the unpredictable and the spectacular: some wonder if he could refuse to surrender, daring Manhattan prosecutor Alvin Bragg’s office to arrest him. “One could imagine that Trump wants to do this for political reasons (…), to make himself more sympathetic,” Wu said for AFP. “It’s something the prosecutor’s office would fear.”

Fears arose after Donald Trump’s Saturday call for protests that violence like that followed similar messages from him on January 6, 2021, during the attack on the Capitol. The forces of order, from the federal level (FBI) to that of the New York police, have been coordinating since last week with a view to an indictment of the ex-president, in order to ward off possible unrest, according to CNN and NBC, citing unnamed sources.

In Washington, where hundreds of Donald Trump supporters stormed the US Congress amid certification of Joe Biden’s victory, police “are not aware” of any planned protests but “will continue to monitor” the situation and will coordinate with the FBI “to ensure the safety of residents and visitors”, according to an AFP spokesperson.