Draghi prepared the market for lower rates in septiembreEl Ibex closed August with a fall of 1.76%, slope of the Central Bank EuropeoLa inflation in the Eurozone drops to 1%, its lowest rate since 2016
The investment bank, the american Goldman Sachs figure until 8.300 million euros in the “coup” for the benefit of the large european banking if the European Central Bank (ECB) discount rates, which is applicable to safeguard its liquidity at 30 basis points, up to 0.7%.
Their calculations are performed with the 32 banks in the euro that covers and including Santander, BBVA, Caixabank, Bankia, Sabadell and Bankinter, in a report released this Wednesday, on the eve of the meeting of the agency that it will agree extra measures of stimuli to animate a european economy in clear slowdown.
“Our economists expect a package significant relief , which includes a rate cut of -20 points, followed by a cut to -10 basis points below”, refers to the investment bank, which it considered essential to accompany such cuts with measures of leveling (the so-called “tiering”) “if you want to avoid a big impact on the earnings of the sector”.
the market expects the ECB to approve the so-called “tiering system” that escalonaría the penalty in function of the liquidity that banks leave on your counter or limit the amount of excess funds that should pay.
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The ECB declined to zero percent of the official price of money in march 2016 and fixed in 0.4% in the deposit facility or office that has an impact to the entities to guard their liquidity, though this penalty, for a lower rate, be traced back two years ago.
trimming of 20 points that Goldman Sachs analysts expect the ECB to announce tomorrow and that would put the penalty at 0.6%, lower at 5,600 million, or 6% of the benefit by the action of the sector according to their calculations.
The impact will increase to 10% or 8.300 million if, as expected, worsens in others to 10 points or commission or fee in subsequent meetings. Are estimates, without considering, in any case, the measures mitigation of the “tiering” that is also expected by the market.
The investment bank is confident that the ECB will announce tomorrow that retrieves the bond buying program for an amount of 25,000 million per month to sovereign debt and 5,000 million for corporate securities.
in German banking, the more penalized
For banking sectors and taking account of a cut of 20 basis points, the Spanish sector would be in the media for damages. I suffered a decline of 9% in earnings per share , above the 6% estimated for the large european banks, but less than 24% of Germany , from 23% to entities, Italian or 11% for the Greek. The lesser impact expected for the banking sector of austria (-3%), the entities of the Netherlands (-4%), the sector in France (-5%), Ireland (-7%) and Portugal (-8%).
On specific entities estimated that this measure would reduce a 2% the benefit of Santander, 3% in BBVA, the 12% to Sabadell, a 16% to Bankia, 9% of Bankinter and a 10% to Caixabank.
The Spanish banks would suffer a loss of 9% of earnings per share if the ECB undertakes a cut of 20 basis points compared to 6% of the eu average
he warns, however, that this impact would be mitigated greatly if you take the aforementioned measures of “tiering”, to the point that it predicts that Santander could experience, even, as a relief or an increase of 0.1% in your benefit , while the decline would be limited to 0.3% in BBVA, 0.9% in Bankinter, 1.4% in Sabadell, 2% in Shares or 3.2% in Bankia.
The investment bank estimated that the european banking has endured a cost of 22.800 billion euros since the ECB introduced the penalty on deposits in the year 2014 . The Spanish banking sector would have run over with the 4% of the receipt, with an outlay estimated at 900 million euros, as the sector in Italy.
The largest bill they would have supported the German banks , with a value of 7,400 million euros (33% of the total), followed by the French, with 5,600 million (25%), and the entities of the Netherlands, with 5,400 million euros (- 24%).
