In Madagascar, the opposition to Andry Rajoelina takes to the streets one month before the presidential election

Madagascar sank a little deeper into the crisis with the repression, Monday October 2, of the demonstration organized by the opposition to protest against the refusal of the outgoing president and candidate for his re-election, Andry Rajoelina, to enter into a process of negotiations to achieve the organization of free and transparent elections by the first round of the presidential election, set for November 9.

Andry Raobelina, one of the eleven candidates – out of the twelve opponents – united against Andry Rajoelina, was the victim of tear gas and rubber bullets used to disperse the crowd who tried to reach the Place du 13-Mai, in the center of Antananarivo. He was hospitalized. Rivo Rakotovao, former president of the Senate and president of the HVM (New Force for Madagascar) party was also slightly injured.

The collegial government designated to act as interim until the election had deployed significant police and gendarmerie forces in the center of the capital to dissuade the opposition from organizing this gathering which it had previously banned.

Sunday evening, in an intervention broadcast on several private television channels, Andry Rajoelina – who resigned from his position as head of state as provided for by law in order to be able to represent himself – had challenged a crisis created, according to him, “of all parts”, by “certain candidates who are not ready, and request a transition”. Thus closing the door to dialogue.

At the same time, the eleven opposition candidates – counting among them the two former heads of state, Marc Ravalomanana and Hery Rajaonarimampianina – justified their initiative: “We have questioned on numerous occasions the infractions of the law, the attacks on the Constitution, contempt for national sovereignty in the preparations and organization of the presidential election. We have questioned fraud of all kinds in the electoral list and denounced the judgments of the High Constitutional Court since any person holding a foreign nationality and deprived of Malagasy nationality cannot be a candidate. »

“Institutional coup d’état”

For six months, the climate has continued to deteriorate. In April, the regime restricted the opposition’s right of expression by banning open-air political meetings to prevent “risks to public order”, leaving the president free to travel the country and promote its balance sheet. Then the revelation in June of Andry Rajoelina’s French nationality, acquired by naturalization decree in 2014, plunged the country into astonishment. All appeals filed before ordinary justice and before the High Constitutional Court (HCC) to challenge his eligibility in 2018 were deemed inadmissible, as were those aimed at invalidating his candidacy for the November 9 election.

The nationality of the outgoing president now constitutes the major point of confrontation in the offensive launched against him. The chaotic overhaul of the electoral list and suspicions of possible fraud have fueled distrust of the Independent National Electoral Commission. Finally, on September 12, the appointment of a “collegial government” led by the Prime Minister, Christian Ntsay, in place, as provided for in the Constitution, of the President of the Senate to take the reins of the country was judged to be the affront too many on the part of the HCC. Hence this accusation of “institutional coup d’état” made by the opposition.

The Ecumenical Council of Christian Churches of Madagascar (FFKM), which has for several weeks engaged in a process of consultations with all actors on the political scene, continues to work to find a compromise which will allow the country not to fall into a new episode of instability.

The role that the army could play remains the great unknown but the wave of coups in West Africa and Central Africa seems to give cause for discussion within the military hierarchy. Monday morning, a text signed by Colonel Charles Andrianasoavina was circulating to demand a “return to constitutional order” and the establishment of “a supreme electoral tribunal” if negotiations do not succeed in restoring calm. This officer keeps the ear of non-commissioned officers for having played a decisive role in the overthrow of Marc Ravalomanana by Andry Rajoelina in 2009.

Despite the risks, opposition candidates decided to gather again on Tuesday October 3. “The May 13 Square is the only place where the history of our country could be changed. We will return there tomorrow and the following days. Until we are heard,” assures Hajo Andrianainarivelo, president of the MMM party and member of the coalition of 11.