Within four months, no more American soldiers will be stationed in Niger. The announcement was made on Sunday, May 19, in Niamey, the capital, after several days of discussions between the ruling junta and a delegation from the American State Department. The approximately 1,000 soldiers deployed as part of the anti-jihadist fight have until September 15 at the latest to leave their base in Agadez, which is used for intelligence and anti-terrorism operations in the Sahel and the Sahara.
The agreement, sealed “with complete transparency and perfect mutual respect between the two parties”, according to the joint press release signed by the Nigerien Minister of Defense, Salifou Modi, and the American Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations, Christopher Maier, ends several weeks of tensions between Washington and the Nigerien transitional authorities, in office since the July 2023 coup d’état against elected President Mohammed Bazoum.
On March 16, after a three-day visit by Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Molly Phee, Niamey brutally denounced the military cooperation agreement with the United States in force since 2012, following pressure deemed “unacceptable”. In an interview with the Washington Post on May 14, Nigerien Prime Minister Ali Mahamane Lamine Zeine claimed that U.S. officials had threatened the regime with sanctions if Niger agreed to sell some of the uranium it produces at the ‘Iran.
“Diplomatic defeat”
The head of the Nigerien government assured that “nothing” had been signed with Iran regarding uranium. But according to several official Western and Nigerien sources interviewed by Le Monde, the junta has indeed engaged in “confidential negotiations” with Iran “for the delivery of 300 tonnes of yellow cake [uranium concentrate]”.
“With this agreement, the United States keeps face, but it is a diplomatic defeat. They wanted to distance themselves from France by advocating flexibility in the face of the junta when Paris was intransigent. Eventually, they leave too, even though there is probably less resentment than among the French,” said Michael Shurkin, program director at 14 North Strategies, a consultancy specializing in African affairs.
While France had to, constrained and forced, recall its ambassador to Niamey and withdraw its troops from Niger in September, Washington hoped to be able to maintain it by postponing for several weeks the call for the restoration of constitutional order before freezing its military aid.
“The Americans had a double interest in negotiating their departure. First, protect their soldiers who have become vulnerable, because their base is located in an isolated area. Then, to protect ourselves, in this election year, against an attack targeting American soldiers which would have disastrous repercussions for the Biden administration,” explains Franklin Nossiter, researcher at the International Crisis Group, based in Dakar.
The fight against terrorism little affected
Since its inauguration in 2019, the American base in Agadez – whose construction cost more than $100 million (€92 million) – has allowed American drones and aircraft to carry out surveillance and intelligence missions in a region where armed groups proliferate. With its closure, the question of the repercussions in the fight against terrorism arises. But, for Michael Shurkin, “this withdrawal will have minimal impact, because it was mainly a matter of collecting intelligence then transmitted to the French. Unlike the latter, American soldiers have not been fighting on the ground since the Tongo Tongo ambush, which killed four soldiers in 2017.
After Mali and Burkina Faso, Niger is the third military-led Sahel country to sever military partnerships with some of their Western allies. Like its two neighbors, with whom it formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), Niamey has also turned to Russia. In April and May, around a hundred Russian instructors were stationed at air base 101 located next to Niamey airport. Responsible for training Nigerien soldiers in the use of the anti-aircraft system, they share the site with their American counterparts.
Asked about this during a press conference on Thursday, American Defense Minister Lloyd Austin indicated that the Russian deployment did not pose a “significant problem (…) in terms of protecting [their] forces.” Furthermore, Washington is gradually banking on a redeployment towards the coastal countries of the Gulf of Guinea, which are under jihadist pressure on their border with the Sahel.
“The withdrawal of American forces in no way affects the pursuit of relations between the United States and Niger in the area of ??development,” the two countries indicated in the Sunday press release. A new three-year, $500 million development aid deal is expected to be signed, according to Niger’s foreign ministry.
