Until the end, they believed in it. For the executives of the Alliance for the Republic (APR), President Macky Sall’s party, the announcement of the latter’s withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race is a severe blow. In recent months, a noisy fringe has continued to demand a third candidacy, however controversial, of their champion. “He is our candidate from A to Z”, assured Mame Mbaye Niang, boiling minister of tourism, reputed to be close to the Senegalese head of state and his influential wife, a few days ago.

To the disappointment of seeing the latter withdraw is added the fear of witnessing the implosion of the Benno Bokk Yakaar coalition – “United by hope” in Wolof. The alliance, which brings together the presidential party (APR), the Socialist Party and the AFP of Moustapha Niasse, former president of the National Assembly, was a formidable power conquest machine in the service of Macky Sall. With his departure announced, the succession battle began behind the scenes. The stakes are simple and urgent: the presidential candidacy scheduled for February 2024. No natural successor having emerged, the game is open.

“Macky Sall reigned supreme in this coalition and his party. He did not prepare a dolphin. But this strategy of emptiness around him is now a handicap seven months before the presidential election, ”analyzes Moussa Diaw, head of the political science section of Gaston-Berger University, in Saint-Louis. Their ambitions were not revealed, but some suitors have nevertheless discreetly prepared for the possibility of the Senegalese president’s departure.

“Hyperpresident Macky Sall”

Favorite as it is, Amadou Ba, 62, the current prime minister. Appointed to everyone’s surprise in September 2022 by Macky Sall, who had however abolished the post a few months earlier, he is a serious candidate. Technocrat, product of the tax administration, he built himself a political stature during his time at the Ministry of Finance where he piloted the flagship economic program of Macky Sall’s first five-year term, the Emerging Senegal Plan. He then served as Minister of Foreign Affairs.

Little present in the media, this courteous and discreet man remains mysterious for the Senegalese. A reserved attitude which could, according to some analysts, harm him in the race for the presidency. “As head of government, we don’t hear it enough. He has very little authority over ministers who report directly to the president. It also lacks space because of the hyperpresident that is Macky Sall, ”explains Maurice Soudieck Dione, associate professor of political science at Gaston-Berger University in Saint-Louis. “It’s a false calm, tempers an opposition leader. He is a strategist, a calculator. A real killer. »

The Senegalese press attributes a considerable fortune to Amadou Ba, former director general of taxes. “Within the movement and in the government, he has silent supporters whom he has helped in the past. Now that the president has spoken, these allies will be able to come out of the woodwork and support him when the time comes,” bets one of his aides.

But in the tightest circle around the president, his ambitions irritate, arouse accusations of disloyalty. In August 2022, members of his team bought the domain name AmadouBa2024. Some of his relatives deny his involvement, but the episode did not go unnoticed in the presidential party. “In politics, loyalty remains the only motto. The president promoted him to prime minister at the expense of party caciques. But he thanked him waving even before the president announced his withdrawal, ”said a party executive. “He gradually became Macky Sall’s most serious rival. No doubt this weighed on the choice to appoint him Prime Minister a few weeks later. But their relationship is terrible,” adds a palace regular.

Thus, in the midst of the controversy over the repression of the June demonstrations which claimed twenty-three lives according to Amnesty International, some of whom were killed with live ammunition, the Prime Minister, accompanied by the Ministers of the Interior and of Justice, was sent to urgently respond to the national and international press. For some observers, the exercise looked like a trap set by the head of state. “It was a way to expose him and get him out of hiding. But Amadou Ba brilliantly thwarted the trap. He was content to distribute the floor to the ministers of the interior and of justice without directly answering the explosive questions, “says an adviser to the presidency.

“Betting on the rising generation”

Another name circulating to represent the majority in 2024, Abdoulaye Daouda Diallo, current chief of staff of Macky Sall and president of the Economic, Social and Environmental Council (CESE). If his profile matches that of the Prime Minister, he is a close friend of the presidential couple. A former inspector of taxes and estates, he has the record for longevity in government. Minister delegate in charge of the budget in 2012-2013, Abdoulaye Daouda Diallo successively held the portfolios of the interior, infrastructure and then finance and budget.

Tipped to be appointed prime minister in 2022, he saw his hopes dashed after the appointment of Amadou Ba. “He too has no base and no political project. He is too withdrawn and not very combative. His proximity to Macky Sall cannot be enough, “says political scientist Moussa Diaw.

Last figure to stand out in the battle for the candidacy, Aly Ngouille Ndiaye. This banker by training, co-founder of the APR, held several ministerial posts before being dismissed during a reshuffle in September 2020. He is currently Minister of Agriculture and enjoys a solid foothold in the region of Djolof, in the northwest of Senegal.

All these experienced profiles are not unanimous within the APR. While a fringe of the party demands a rejuvenation of the cadres, a generational divide threatens to appear in the struggle for the succession. “The party cannot present a candidate in 2024 who does not speak the language of young people. [Ousmane] Sonko [mayor of Ziguinchor], [Barthélémy] Dias [mayor of Dakar] are doing it successfully. Macky Sall knows that to perpetuate his legacy and his camp, he must bet on the rising generation, ”warns a close friend of the president. The time for the new ambitious has arrived, bringing promises of renewal as well as the risk of seeing the ruling coalition disintegrate through personal temptations.