The presidential election in Uganda is not scheduled before 2026, but already the supporters of General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, son of the irremovable head of state, Yoweri Museveni, are multiplying the meetings. After Kabale (south), Masindi (center) or Bundibugyo (west), it is in the city of Fort Portal (west) that the “MK Movement” inaugurated its last regional committee on Sunday, May 14.
“We are testing the waters,” says Balaam Barugahara Ateenyi, appointed group vice president for the west. A long-time supporter of the National Resistance Movement (NRM), the presidential party, the businessman has long participated in the organization of public meetings of the Head of State, inviting to perform there the popular singers with whom his business is working. From now on, it is for the “first son” that he mobilizes his equipment and contacts in the musical world.
Online, the “MK Army”, the nickname of Muhoozi Kainerugaba’s supporters, floods social networks with images of stadiums filled with supporters wearing yellow NRM t-shirts bearing the image of the 49-year-old soldier. With this inscription: “My next president”.
“The attendance at these events does not mean that a politician is popular. Crowds can come just for a free meal or to see an artist,” said Moses Khisa, a Ugandan professor of political science at the University of North Carolina in the United States. “However, it is unprecedented in Uganda for a serving general to try to build popular support by traveling across the country,” said Kristof Titeca, a professor at the University of Antwerp, Belgium, who specializes in conflict and governance in Central and East Africa.
Controversial publications
Although Ugandan law prohibits the military from participating in political life, several personalities close to the regime have been calling for more than a year for the son of Yoweri Museveni to take his father’s place. “He has more supporters in the youth. We have been in power for so long with the NRM, the best alternative now is Muhoozi”, justifies Michael Mawanda, deputy of the presidential party and one of the central committee members of the MK Movement.
Like him, several parliamentarians affiliated with the NRM have already announced their support for the general and regularly participate in the events of his movement. “Many are thinking about after Museveni and think that Muhoozi will succeed his father,” said Moses Khisa. On Twitter – his preferred means of communication – Muhoozi Kainerugaba himself, on several occasions, expressed his desire to participate in the next presidential election. “Let us remind all our enemies that we will run in 2026 and with the help of Almighty God, we will win this election! he wrote on March 30.
On the social network, the heir is a regular at controversial publications. In October 2022, after a post in which he claimed that his army could seize Nairobi in less than two weeks, the Ugandan president had to publicly apologize in place of his son to the Kenyan authorities. A few days later, Muhoozi Kainerugaba, appointed general, lost his position as army commander in an impromptu reshuffle, leaving him without a defined position in the hierarchy of the Ugandan armed forces.
“Perhaps at this point Muhoozi crossed the line: he showed that he was unpredictable and did not follow all his father’s orders. But he still kept a freedom in his speeches, “analyzes Moses Khisa. Since then, the soldier has indeed repeatedly denigrated the old guard of the NRM, presenting himself as the representative of the new generation in a country where more than 80% of the population is under 35 and has only known current president, 78 years old.
In power since 1986, Yoweri Museveni “has done a lot, especially to fight rebellions and terrorism, but the level of corruption is still very high; Muhoozi would be tougher on this issue”, wants to believe Balaam Barugahara Ateenyi, mentioning the recent scandal of diversion of roofing sheets intended for vulnerable people, in which several ministers and parliamentarians are implicated.
“The main argument of the president’s supporters has always been that he brought peace to a country long ravaged by war,” recalls Kristof Titeca. But it no longer holds much value for the younger generation, who want decent jobs, roads, health care and education. »
“We won’t stop it”
Previously discreet in the public space, Muhoozi Kainerugaba has distinguished himself in recent months as coordinator of the repatriation of Ugandan nationals to Sudan after the start of the fighting, inspector of roads in the capital, Kampala, following a popular campaign of criticism of their condition on social networks, or even the main actor having led to the reopening of the border with Rwanda in 2022.
Will the NRM come to the next election divided? “If Muhoozi wants to run against his father, we will not stop him,” said Richard Todwong, secretary general of the ruling party, saying however that the majority of activists still support the head of state.
Yoweri Museveni has not yet expressed his intentions for 2026, but several of his supporters are already calling for him to run for a seventh term, including the vice-president, Jessica Alupo, and the retired major general, companion of guerrilla of the head of state during the 1980s and current interior minister, Kahinda Otafiire. In 2019, the central executive committee of the NRM had already passed a resolution declaring the head of state as the “unique candidate for 2021 and beyond”.
“Whatever the scenario, we are at a very volatile time in Ugandan history. Given the advanced age of President Museveni, a transition is approaching in the short or medium term, ”points out Kristof Titeca.
On May 3, Muhoozi Kainerugaba and his central committee met with the head of state at his presidential residence in Entebbe. “For now, the MK Movement is a pressure group. We are in the process of officially registering it”, develops Balaam Barugahara Ateenyi. The first step for the general is to retire from the military: at the end of March, he announced on social networks that he wanted to retire from the army this year, after twenty-four years of service. The last obstacle before being able to fully engage in political life.
