An ally of the West, but also of Russia, from whom it has been buying cheap oil since the war in Ukraine, oil which it refines and then resells, India has become essential both diplomatically and economically. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is President Emmanuel Macron’s guest for the July 14 parade.
Now more vigorous than that of China, Indian growth is approaching 6% each year. In 2027, the country’s gross domestic product will exceed that of Japan and Germany, according to the American bank Morgan Stanley. A great specialist on India and author of the reference book The Economy of India (ed. La Découverte), the economist Jean-Joseph Boillot explains why the 21st century can be that of India.
Le Point: Why should we take India seriously?
Has Prime Minister Narendra Modi modernized the country?
On the one hand, he cultivated with foreign investors an image of a man of decision, as shown by the purchase, in 2016, of 36 Rafale for 8 billion euros. On the other, Narendra Modi is extremely archaic. A man who does pujas (rites of offerings) and is extremely religiously intolerant. In India, they go after Muslims and hunt down those who celebrate Valentine’s Day. The ruling BJP nationalist party is traditional Hinduism, not to say traditionalist.
Modi is an ally of Russia, visits the United States and France… How to analyze his diplomatic positions?
The West must pay attention to a small sentence which was taken up in the G20 communiqué from Bali in November 2022. It sets the modus operandi of Indian diplomacy. “This is not an era for war. This is not an era for war. For the Indians, the West represents a warlike threat as important as Russia. India therefore wants peace and an East-West balance.
How authoritarian is the Indian regime becoming?
Upon the arrival of the Hindu nationalist BJP government in 2014, there was a risk of neo-fascist slippage. Today, Narendra Modi and his entourage understood that Indian society was not going to fall into the nationalist trap. India is not a Chinese-style authoritarian country. But Narendra Modi still has to manage an extremist faction within the BJP. There is a strong rivalry between Home Minister Amit Shah, who is truly neofascist but very secular, and Yogi Adityanath, the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh, India’s largest state, who is a monk. Hindu.
For foreign companies, can India be more attractive than China?
What about corruption?
Can India assert itself as the world’s new factory?
Large foreign companies will not say publicly that India will replace China, which still remains a strategic market for them. However, in fact, they are reducing the sails in the Middle Kingdom by strengthening themselves in India. History rather shows a coexistence of India and China.
India is not yet very competitive in terms of exports, even though it has two major hubs in Chennai and Pune, due to logistical constraints and the cost of energy. Foreign companies must be able to produce at domestic prices, therefore in rupees. The famous Maruti car symbolizes the great success of a foreign company, that of the Japanese firm Suzuki. On the French side, L’Oréal has achieved a faultless bet on small bottles sold in street shops for only a few rupees. You have to know how to be pragmatic and adapt to the market.
