The two rounds between the legislative elections will prove to be more difficult for Emmanuel Macron than the presidential election. He will be unable to flirt with Jean-Luc Melenchon’s voters this time. It is with him that he finds itself in a direct duel: The presidential majority (Together!) The union of left-wing parties (the Nupes New Popular Ecological and Social Union) came out in front in the first round legislative elections. Each received around 26% of national votes.
The projections of polling institutes regarding the number of seats are more favorable for the LREM-MoDem–Horizons alliance (between 255-295 according to Ipsos), than they are for the LFI, EELV and the PS (between 150-190), so nothing is done. Emmanuel Macron spent his evening at Elysee with a group of faithful. However, he believes that he has avoided the worst and that Jean-Luc Melenchon’s ghost is gone.
It stops. These weeks, the doubts expressed by the macronie were well-founded. The re-elected president is for now completely absent from these legislative elections. Although his troops believe it, it is far from certain that he will be able to get an absolute majority at the National Assembly (which has 289 seats) at the conclusion of the second round.
These same seat projections show that the disavowal of the Head of State is even more apparent when we examine them in detail. LREM had a majority of 308 seats in 2017, but could lose 100 seats five years later. The presidential majority will not be able to achieve this absolute majority unless the elected representatives from Francois Bayrou or Edouard Philippe contribute, which will be essential allies and very demanding.
It is equally difficult for the tenant of Elysee to analyze the scores at national level. The Head of State’s coalition won 26% more votes than the one that was held in 2017. This is six points lower than the 2017 results. Worse, Emmanuel Macron had the worst result for a President in the Fifth Republic at the first round of legislative elections that follow the presidential one. Jean-Luc-Melenchon supported the statement, “The presidential party is defeated, defeated” at the conclusion of the first round.
The situations of many members of the government can be seen as very complex if they are taken one by one. Clement Beaune is the Minister Delegate to Europe. He was disengaged from his Parisian constituency due to the candidacy of Nupes. Amelie de Montchalin was appointed to the highly strategic position of Minister for Ecological Transition. Jerome Guedj, another Nupes representative, is leading by ten points in Essonne. Even though the Prime Minister is well on her way to Calvados, Elisabeth Borne doesn’t have enough support to allow her to approach the second round calmly.
There are so many problems that could lead to real difficulties within a week. The Elysee indicated that the ministers who were defeated would be asked for their resignations immediately. The grognards, who are members of the head-of-state’s close guard, the presidential movement’s grognards, are also in a delicate situation. They include Richard Ferrand in Finistere, and to a lesser degree, Christophe Castaner from the Alpes-de-France. -Haute-Provence. A further disappointment was the exit of Jean-Michel Blanquer (his former Minister for National Education), in round one in Loiret.
However, the majority advisor wants to see the glass as half full.
The greatest threat to macronists is found in the second round between the Nupes, the National Rally of Marine Le Pen. Emmanuel Macron, in his duel against Jean-Luc Melenchon decided to not give voting instructions. An adviser explained that it is not a national topic and only a few constituencies are affected. It will vary from one case to the next. The final nail in the coffin for the Republican front. He had, however, served the Head of States well in his election in 2017 as well as his re-election in 2020.
