A specialist in armed conflicts in the Sahel and Tuareg political elites, Adib Bencherif is assistant professor of political science at the University of Sherbrooke (Canada) and associate researcher at the University of Florida (United States). He returns to the clashes between the armed forces and the former rebel groups in Mali which threaten to shatter the peace agreement signed in Algiers in 2015.
Adib Bencherif It seems that there were two clashes that day: one between the Malian soldiers on their way to Ber and the CMA, the other between these same soldiers and the jihadist groups present in the region. What is certain is that the Malian troops want to record victories, especially since they are supported by Wagner. For them, regaining a foothold in the Ber military camp, from which the United Nations Mission in Mali has withdrawn definitively, is a first step.
The objective is to reposition itself in the north of Mali. In Bamako, the story of the reconquest of lost sovereignty is hammered home to galvanize the population. Despite the risks, it is therefore not impossible that the Malian forces will try, in a second step, to reach Kidal, the stronghold of the Tuareg rebellion. For the former insurgents, this is obviously out of the question.
These Tuareg representatives did not, for the most part, live permanently in Bamako. They often went back and forth to the North. Did they fear arrest in the capital or anticipate clashes to come? Hard to say, but the signal is worrying. It shows that the situation can switch to a conflicting logic.
For several years, and despite mistrust, there was a form of status quo between the CMA and the Malian armed forces, engaged in the fight against jihadist groups. Friday’s episode is one of the first – if not the first – real showdowns. Since 2015, the implementation of the peace agreement has been extremely laborious. On paper, it provided in particular for greater autonomy for the different regions of Mali and a recomposition of the army in which former rebels must be integrated.
But there is a long-standing distrust between the authorities and these groups, mainly Tuareg and Arab, which have effectively controlled the north of the country for more than ten years. After the 2020 and 2021 coup, there were many discussions within the agreement monitoring committee, which may have given the impression that the transitional governments wanted to renegotiate the terms of the agreement.
The presence of the Minusma made it possible to calm the inclinations of the actors. This was particularly true for the Malian armed forces and their Wagner associates, whose abuses were denounced by Minusma, which led to its having to withdraw. Today, both the authorities and the rebels would like to reoccupy the former peacekeeper camps. The Malian army has already announced that it now controls the old base of Ogossagou.
I will not link the two files. The instability in Niger is likely to benefit jihadist groups present on the Niger-Malian border, but I do not think that the coup d’etat had an impact on the former rebel groups.
