Ross Perot, eternal candidate for the US presidential elections, said that war has rules, fights in the mud have rules, but politics have none. The Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, comfortable in battle, happy in the mud, and a master of survival, demonstrated on Monday that the maxim also fits geostrategy at the highest level like a glove. The heads of state and government of NATO are meeting this week in Vila (Lithuania) to discuss the Russian invasion, nuclear threats or the future incorporation of Ukraine into the Alliance. They also wanted to celebrate the definitive ‘green light’ for the immediate incorporation of Sweden, member number 32, but the ‘reis’, as his followers call him, the ‘boss’, had other plans and managed to monopolize the attention, monopolize the spotlights and mark, once again, his rhythm before giving a very conditioned “yes”.
After having himself repealed, muddying the conversation over and over again, multiplying the demands and exasperating his, in theory, allies, the Turkish president promised yesterday in writing to finally lift the last veto and announced that he is passing the ball to the Assembly of your country to complete the ratification process. This step is, along with the Hungarian Parliament, the last pending procedure.
The scenario dreamed of by all would have been that the Nordic country had already arrived as one more at this summit, but it was not possible. After much hesitation, the Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, appeared late at night and alone to explain the terms of an agreement, or actually a commitment to an agreement, because it is full of conditionals for ratification to take place “as soon as possible”. but without setting exact deadlines. In the best of cases, next week, but if this is not the case, the Turkish deputies take a break until October, so everything would be postponed a little longer, time for there to be reversals or new occurrences.
“This is good for Sweden, it is good for Turkey because it is a NATO member that will benefit from a stronger Alliance, and it is good for the whole organization,” said the Norwegian, content. As part of the agreement, Stoltenberg has promised Erdogan the creation of a position to coordinate the fight against terrorism within the Atlantic Alliance. Similarly, Sweden is committed to strengthening its economic cooperation, bilateral exchanges and investments. And to interact under the umbrella of a “new bilateral Security Pact that will meet annually at the ministerial level and create working groups as appropriate. In the first meeting of this Security Pact, Sweden will present a road map as the basis for its fight continues against terrorism in all its forms and manifestations towards the full implementation of all the elements of the Trilateral Memorandum, including article 4”, says the consensual text. Furthermore, Sweden reiterates that it “does not provide support to YPG/PYD, and the organization described as FETÖ in Turkey.”
A capitulation for Stockholm that has had to go much further than expected and what was deduced from the initial agreement 12 months ago. Sweden and Finland applied to join NATO in May last year, just three months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, turning 180 from a position dating back to the Cold War. In June they were invited by the organization and at the Madrid Summit, in July 2022, Turkey staged its conditional approval, after showing countless reservations from the beginning. One year later, Finland has been ratified and is a full member, but Sweden is not. Ankara has forced changes to Nordic anti-terrorism legislation, constitutional amendments and the lifting of the existing ban on arms sales to Turkey, but it has not been enough. Erdogan asked for extraditions, more commitments, that the same censorship with which he governs be applied to prevent demonstrations by opponents, sympathizers of the Kurdish PKK or the extreme right that burns copies of the Koran. And as if that were not enough, this Monday, halfway between Istanbul and Vilnius, he asked for the last impossible: that the EU reopen the negotiations for the accession of his country.
“Turkey has been waiting at the door of the EU for more than 50 years. I appeal to these countries that keep Turkey waiting. Open the way for Turkey to the EU and we will clear the way for Sweden, just as we paved the way for Finland “, Erdogan declared at the Istanbul Atatürk airport, before traveling to Lithuania. Blackmail is anything except a novelty in the way of proceeding of the ‘reis’, and it is not strange that the loot he aspires to is that. In 2016, he imposed as a condition for signing a migration agreement with the EU the reopening of several chapters of the accession negotiations that had been stalled for years. Turkey has been formally a candidate since 1999, but if it once seemed complicated, now it is unthinkable. Nobody wants it inside, nobody believes that it is ready, that it is good for the continent, for the citizens, for cohesion or coherence. After the strange coup d’état experienced in the country, the internal repression, the threats with capital punishment, the imprisonment of opponents, the bombings of Kurdistan, the operations in Syria, the ties with Moscow, that door is completely closed. For everyone but Erdogan, it seems.
The start of the NATO Summit was marked by that surprise during hours of nerves, confusion and many bilateral meetings and races through the corridors. It was not the place, nor the time, explain all the community sources. Both things cannot be linked, let alone in such a crude way. Erdogan has taken advantage of his hand to punish and humiliate an impotent Sweden, but at least, community diplomats say, there was a certain thread between the terrorist threats that he denounces and the presence of Kurdish exiles in Sweden, from where strong opposition to his regime is made . But the Union thing is something else.
The Turkish leader was enjoying himself because he knows he is in an advantageous position and because he is managing to lump a good part of his political, economic, security and internal concerns into the same bag. Mixing up its feuds with Greece, the purchase of F16 fighter jets stalled by Washington since 2019, its perpetual problems with the Kurdish question and a new turn in its relations with Russia, a pendulum swinging since the Crimean War, 166 years ago. . In addition, there is a clear need for stronger trade links with the EU for shabby finances. Ankara wants progress in the Customs Union and achieve visa liberalization for its citizens, a recurring request in the last decade.
On Sunday, in a call with President Joe Biden, Ankara already warned that it was not going to the Summit with open arms, assuring that the burning of the Koran in Sweden “nullified” everything done by the Swedish government since the end of the call Trilateral Memorandum. As General Secretary Stoltenberg said the day before, these demonstrations only benefit two actors: Russia and the PKK. The first to prevent a bigger and stronger NATO, and the party considered a terrorist in case they manage to prevent good relations between Stockholm and its traditional enemies. The Turks know it, but they take advantage.
Having said that, the feeling in Vilnius and Brussels at the same time is that it was an outstretched hand, in its own way, twisted, but you have to know how to interpret it. After these ups and downs and problems in recent years, Erdogan has said that Ukraine has earned its seat in NATO, signed a drone agreement with Zelenski (with whom he met last week) and participated in the release of Azov prisoners. , captured mainly in Mariupol, provoking the anger of Moscow. Turkey therefore plays the Russian card or the American card, as Bill Clinton did in the mid-90s.
There is not much secret. Erdogan brought the White House into the equation on Sunday, just as Minister Hakan Fidan did with his US counterpart, Antony Blinken, or Akif Caatay Kiliç, special adviser to the Turkish president, did with US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan. . And he closed a bilateral meeting, on the margins of the summit, with Biden for this Tuesday. He also dined with European Council President Charles Michel (to “explore opportunities to revitalize relations” and how to “proceed strategically and forward-thinking” but without promises or news), in between meetings with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and Secretary General Stoltenberg, trying as always to put out fires and bring positions closer. The way seems clear, but nothing is closed until everything is closed and as it has become clear, although the board is in Vilnius today, the game is played in many points at the same time and every time you push from one side you pull from other. If there are no more surprises, NATO will have 32 pieces, but the threat remains the same.
According to the criteria of The Trust Project
