As the ultimatum issued by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) ended on Sunday, August 6, the ruling junta in Niger showed no sign of surrender. The regional organization had given the putschists led by General Abdourahamane Tiani a week to restore Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum, sequestered in his presidential residence in Niamey since the July 26 coup. Once this period has passed, “all necessary measures” will be taken and may “include the use of force”, warned ECOWAS. But from the Maghreb to West Africa, voices are being raised to ask for an extension of the duration of the negotiations.
The former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Niger, Aïchatou Mindaoudou, warned on Saturday July 5, in a series of messages published on X (ex-Twitter), against an operation “which will have harmful, inestimable and lasting consequences both in Niger than in the entire sub-region”. Algeria, which is not a member of ECOWAS but shares nearly 1,000 kilometers of border with Niger, has also expressed its hostility towards an operation which would represent, according to President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, “a direct threat” to his country.
Facing the ECOWAS “camp”, the soldiers of the National Council for the Safeguarding of the Homeland (CNSP), who have promised an “immediate response” to “any aggression”, can indeed count on the displayed solidarity of Burkina Faso and of Mali. The two countries, led by putschists, have made it known that they will consider any armed intervention in their neighbor as a “declaration of war” against them.
Faced with this alliance of juntas, ECOWAS is preparing, while ensuring that the military option will only intervene as a last resort. For three days, the chiefs of staff of the organization exchanged in Abuja. “All the elements of a possible intervention have been worked out at this meeting, including the necessary resources, but also how and when we will deploy the force,” the Commissioner for Political Affairs and Security stressed on Saturday. security, Abdel-Fatau Musah. “ECOWAS is not going to tell the putschists when and where we are going to strike,” he added, referring to an “operational decision that will be taken by the heads of state” of the bloc.
dissonant voices
But it is not said that the latter have free rein. On Saturday, Nigerian senators, while condemning the coup, openly voiced their concern. Seven federated states border Niger’s southern border for 1,500 kilometers and the Nigerian army would be on the front line in the event of an intervention. “The Senate calls on Bola Tinubu [the country’s president, also at the head of the regional organization] to further encourage other ECOWAS leaders to strengthen political and diplomatic options and other means to break the political impasse”, said Godswill Akpabio, the speaker of the upper house.
Even in Senegal, where the authorities denounced “the coup de trop” and clearly announced their intention to participate in a possible military offensive in Niger, dissonant voices began to be heard in the political class. Former minister and opposition deputy Thierno Alassane Sall warned on Saturday against the risk of provoking “one of the most deadly wars in the sub-region” and called on the presidential majority not to commit the country without the support of the ‘National Assembly.
In Côte d’Ivoire, the subject is little debated. The country has been in mourning since the death of former President Henri Konan Bédié on August 1. During his speech to the nation, delivered on the eve of the celebration of the 63 years of the country’s independence, the Ivorian President Alassane Ouattara contented himself with condemning an “attempted coup d’etat in Niger which constitutes a serious threat to peace and security in the sub-region”.
Several options
“Of course, he added, we support the initiatives of ECOWAS aimed at restoring constitutional order in this brotherly country and allowing President Mohamed Bazoum, the democratically elected president, to exercise his functions freely”. According to the Ivorian Constitution, Parliament must be consulted before a declaration of war. “But if a vote were to take place, predicts Ivorian political scientist Arthur Banga, specializing in defense and security issues, it would pass without worry. »
However, the legal framework for a possible intervention by West African armies in Niger is not yet clearly defined. “The United Nations Security Council retains ‘primary responsibility’ for the maintenance of international peace and security,” recalls Julien Antouly, researcher in the law of armed conflict. In the case of Niger, it is highly unlikely that the body will come out in favor of a military operation.
“The second option, continues the lawyer, would be that of an operation under ECOWAS mandate. The regional organization has protocols that govern this type of mission in the event of an unconstitutional change in a member state. Could it therefore dispense with the advice of the Security Council? The question is debated. “In Sierra Leone, it obtained a posteriori authorization from the United Nations, and in Gambia, it enjoyed an implicit authorization since the Council had not condemned the intervention”, underlines Julien Antouly.
In such a framework, non-member states of the organization such as France or the United States could not, legally, claim a mandate from ECOWAS to act. A third option remains: that of a chief of State asking allies to intervene. In the case of Niger, this would amount to considering that President Mohamed Bazoum is still in power, while he is being held hostage, like several of his ministers. In addition, specifies Julien Antouly, “interventions at the request of a State are limited to external aggressions or to imperatives such as the fight against crime or terrorism. It cannot be used to settle internal political controversies.”