About 30,000 Niger coup supporters gathered in Niamey on Sunday, demonstrating their strength hours before an ultimatum from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) expired. This ultimatum demanded that the ruling military restore the ousted president, Bazoum, or see “force” being used against them.

Despite the sweltering heat, demonstrators flocked in the afternoon and filled the Seini Kountché stadium, the largest in Niger, which can accommodate up to 30,000 people. They were waving flags of Niger, Russia and Burkina Faso, as noted by AFP journalists present on the spot. This demonstration marks a crucial moment in the ongoing political crisis in Niger, with the international community closely monitoring the development of the situation.

“Today is our true independence day!” cried a young man, the crowd around him shouting, “Down with France, down with ECOWAS!” », the Economic Community of West African States which threatened to intervene militarily. Members of the National Council for the Safeguarding of the Homeland (CNSP, which took power) arrived triumphantly at the stadium in a convoy of pick-up vehicles, cheered and surrounded by a fevered crowd.

The ultimatum expires on Sunday evening and for the time being, the generals who took power on July 26 in Niamey have shown no desire to give way. The contours of the force for a possible military intervention were “defined” on Friday by the ECOWAS Chiefs of Staff and certain armies such as Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire said they were ready to participate. The coup was condemned by all of Niger’s Western and African partners, but the Nigerien military received support from their counterparts in Mali and Burkina Faso – who also came to power through putsches in 2020 and 2022 – who claim that an intervention in Niger would be a “declaration of war” on their two countries.

The prospect of a West African military intervention arouses concern and criticism.

On Saturday, senators from Nigeria, a heavyweight in ECOWAS with its 215 million inhabitants and which shares a 1,500 km border with Niger, called on President Bola Tinubu to “strengthen the political and diplomatic option”. According to the Nigerian press, a majority of senators expressed their opposition to a military operation during a closed-door meeting. Saturday evening Algeria, a major player in the Sahel which shares nearly 1,000 km of border with Niger, also expressed reservations.

In Niamey, the military for their part promised this week an “immediate response” to “any aggression”.

“We must prevent the catastrophic scenario of a war,” warned a group of researchers, specialists in the Sahel, in a column published Saturday evening in the French daily Liberation.

“If ECOWAS intervenes, it will make the situation even worse. But the people are ready and the population will support the new leaders, because we want change,” says Jackou, a textile trader. Several European countries have evacuated hundreds of their nationals in recent days to Niger. After France and Spain, Italy announced on Sunday the departure of 65 military personnel aboard a plane which landed in Rome on Saturday evening.

ECOWAS and Western countries are calling for a return to constitutional order and the release of President Bazoum, held prisoner since the July 26 coup. France notably indicated on Saturday that it supported “with firmness and determination” the efforts of ECOWAS, believing that it was about “the future of Niger and the stability of the whole region”.

Relations between the military who took power and the former colonial power have deteriorated in recent days. The soldiers denounced military and security cooperation agreements with Paris, which deploys 1,500 soldiers in Niger for the fight against terrorism, a measure ignored by Paris.