What fate for French troops in Niger? The question deserves to be asked when, on Monday evening, the new Nigerien Prime Minister, appointed by the junta which took power on July 26, Ali Mahaman Lamine Zeine, affirmed that “exchanges” were underway with the French forces stationed in the country to allow their departure “very quickly”. Around 1,500 troops are currently in the country, mainly at the “projected air base” (BAP) located near Niamey airport. “Discussions on the withdrawal of certain military elements have begun,” the French Ministry of the Armed Forces finally indicated on Wednesday, without specifying which units were concerned.
The generals who took power in Niger at the end of July in a coup d’état denounced several military cooperation agreements with Paris on August 3. Since then, the French armies no longer support the Nigerien soldiers on the ground. Thus “the question of maintaining certain of our forces arises”, according to the ministry, in particular the units responsible for maintaining equipment unused on site for more than a month, such as drones, helicopters or aircraft. hunting.
“Functional coordination exchanges exist locally between soldiers to facilitate the movement of French military resources immobilized since the suspension of anti-terrorist cooperation” after the coup, the minister’s entourage had indicated earlier, without specifying the nature of these “movements”, their magnitude or their progress.
However, the head of the Nigerien government wanted to assure that his government hoped “if possible to maintain cooperation with a country with which we have shared a lot of things”.
France, a former colonial power, does not recognize the new authorities in Niamey and is maintaining its ambassador there for the moment, despite the injunctions of the new authorities having dismissed President Mohamed Bazoum, who are demanding his departure.
Paris has also so far ruled out a military withdrawal from Niger, where 1,500 soldiers and airmen are deployed on the planned Niamey air base as well as in Ouallam and Ayorou, alongside the Nigeriens, in the so-called three border zone between the Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali, which serves as a sanctuary for jihadists from the Islamic State group.
But the armies now seem caught up in the principle of reality. Drones, fighter planes and helicopters are grounded on the planned air base of Niamey, while the infantrymen deployed with their armored vehicles on the forward bases of Ouallam and Ayorou, supposed in normal times to support Niger’s anti-jihadist operations, do not get out on the field more.
“The partnership worked” between the French and Nigerien armies, it was “in the interest” of Niger, but “I do not believe it is tenable, we cannot function and carry out military operations without the cooperation of the host countries” , underlines to AFP Michael Shurkin, American specialist in the Sahel and the French armies.
In one month, since the junta came to power, repeated attacks in the so-called three border zone, between Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali, have left dozens of military and civilian deaths.
At a standstill due to the political blockage between Paris and Niamey, human and material resources dedicated to counter-terrorism could well be withdrawn from Niger, notably via Cotonou in Benin, towards France, neighboring Chad, which hosts the state – major of the French forces in the Sahel, or even towards other theaters where jihadists are active, such as the Middle East, according to consistent sources.
More broadly, the question of the extent of the withdrawal remains open, French military and political sources agree.
In Paris, we are waiting to see if the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which condemned the coup, imposed heavy sanctions on Niger and threatened military intervention, manages to obtain results.
But the West African organization “does not want to repeat” in Niger “the experiences of Mali, Guinea and Burkina”, where transition periods had been negotiated with the putschists, Abdel-Fatau said on Wednesday on France 24 Musah, ECOWAS Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security, specifying however that the priority was “mediation”.
Second factor which pushes France to play for time, it is explained in Paris: the dissensions between the Nigerien generals responsible for the coup, which could lead to a disintegration of the military power in place capable of resolving the situation.
“There are surely some Nigerian officers who know very well the value of partnership and who are not happy with what is happening. We may be waiting for them to act, ”suggests Michael Shurkin.
Occurring after the French military and diplomatic disappointments in Mali and Burkina Faso, this new crisis in Niger risks in any case leaving traces in Paris and could well accelerate, or even amplify, the reduction in the size of the military presence initiated in Africa. the West on the orders of the Élysée.