Between shortages and the risk of violence, Nigerians are preparing to elect the next president of Africa’s most populous country on Saturday in a poll that promises to be tense and whose outcome remains uncertain.
For the first time since the return to democracy in 1999, Nigeria could experience a two-round presidential election, as the growing popularity of an outsider candidate and a shortage of banknotes have disrupted the campaign.
At 80, President Muhammadu Buhari is stepping down after two terms marked by an explosion of insecurity and poverty in this country where 60% of the population is under 25 years old.
Some 93 million voters are called to 176,000 polling stations to elect his successor from among 18 candidates, as well as deputies and senators. A crucial meeting when Nigeria should become the third most populous country in the world by 2050 and when West Africa is threatened by a strong democratic decline and the spread of jihadist violence.
Of the 18 candidates, including a woman, who are running for the presidency, only three profiles seem to stand out and present a real chance of succeeding outgoing President Muhammadu Buhari, 80, whose record is considered catastrophic.
And an outsider seems to have stood out in recent months. Peter Obi, 61, is the candidate for the Labor Party (LP). This former governor of Anambra (South-East) presents himself as the candidate for change and is ultra-popular among urban youth. Peter Obi, an Igbo from the south-east – known for his integrity and good governance – has evolved over the months into a credible candidate for the presidential election in Nigeria, facing the aging establishment of the West African giant. “For decades, the Nigerian political class, in conjunction with other elites, has been incredibly corrupt and reckless in running the country. It’s time to change, “insisted the one whose candidacy seemed a few months ago to be reduced to a phenomenon on social networks in a forum in mid-February for the British weekly The Economist.
The Igbo ethnic group, the majority in the Southeast, has always felt marginalized and remains traumatized by the civil war in Biafra (1967-1970). Many Igbo still yearn for independence. But his formation, the Labor Party, lacks structures at the national level and has no governor. In the previous election in 2019, its candidate won 0.2% of the vote. Nigeria “now needs stingy people who keep the money for the development of the country”, he told his rival Bola Tinubu, during the electoral campaign which ends on Thursday.
Another uncertainty: as a Christian Igbo, will Mr. Obi be able to mobilize in the huge pool of voters in the north, which is predominantly Hausa and Muslim? Analysts doubt this and point to the importance of “vote buying” that has skewed the electoral game in Nigeria in recent decades.
To be declared the winner of the presidential election, a candidate must have obtained the highest number of votes and at least 25% of the ballots in at least two-thirds of the 36 states and in Abuja. If none of the candidates qualify, there will be a runoff between the top two candidates within 21 days, which would be a first in Nigeria’s democratic history.
