Military experts in Ukraine rate the recent offensive in Kharkiv as a surprisingly great success. “Ukraine is slowly taking the initiative.” German anti-aircraft tanks were probably also involved. For further offensives, the quick delivery of Leopard 2 and Marder tanks would “really help enormously”.
After the Ukraine had started relatively slow offensive actions in the southern district of Cherson some time ago, the Ukrainian army surprised last week with a lightning-fast and successful counter-offensive in Kharkiv Oblast. Russian forces remain only in a small area in the east of the region. In addition, the liberation of the strategically important city of Izyum ruined the plans of the Russians: they wanted to take possession of the key city of Sloviansk in the Donetsk region and then conquer the entire Donbass.
Is this already the turning point of the war? Ukrainian military experts are reluctant to comment on ntv.de, but speak of a surprisingly great success. “It’s not a turning point yet, but it’s definitely the beginning of a turning point. In the next two to three weeks we’ll see where the whole thing goes,” says Oleksiy Melnyk, co-director of the international security programs of the think tank “Zentr Razumkowa” and at the same time retired lieutenant colonel in the Ukrainian army.
Oleksandr Mussiyenko, head of the Center for Military Legal Studies in Kyiv, thinks similarly: “We always have to assume the worst possible scenario. But Ukraine is slowly taking the initiative. We will see more and more offensive actions.”
There are several reasons for the huge success in the Kharkiv district, Mussiyenko emphasizes. “Behind this is systematic work in advance. The Ukrainian army used HIMARS multiple rocket launchers and other artillery to attack Russian ammunition depots and also military personnel. Systematic work has been going on in the direction of Izyum since July,” said the expert. “In addition, the military leadership planned the operation well and, above all, carried it out at exactly the right time.”
Oleksiy Melnyk emphasizes that the Ukrainians managed a good psychological operation. “There is indeed an offensive in the south, and everyone knows it is inevitable. However, the General Staff has managed to give the impression that Kherson is the main thrust.” That is wise for two reasons. For one thing, the Russians were forced to concentrate between 25,000 and 30,000 troops in Cherson, mostly on the west bank of the Dnipro, while the Ukrainians continually closed the bridges across the river, destroying the logistics in the long run. A possible trap, many say.
On the other hand, it resulted in the fact that almost only the Russian National Guard and similar units, which normally deal with the protection of public order, remained on the Russian side in the Kharkiv district. These forces were not prepared for a major offensive by the Ukrainians. “We also saw that many soldiers and commanders are quite demoralized. In some places there was fighting, in others the Russians simply fled and left a lot of military equipment behind,” says Mussienko, who calls this a “fatal sign”.
In the Kharkiv district, the Russians remain only in the area east of the Oskil River. Staying there is not of great strategic importance for the Russian army. Therefore, it is not excluded that they will completely leave the Kharkiv region. For the time being, however, they will probably try to stay there. With regard to Cherson, Melnyk and Mussiyenko see the Russians facing major problems in the medium and long term because of the logistical problems. “They use ferries there, but that’s only a small part compared to the supplies that could be delivered via bridges,” says Mussiyenko.
“In my view, the situation in Cherson has already been decided in advance in the long term. The Russians will have to leave the western bank at some point,” emphasizes Oleksiy Melnyk. “Then the Ukrainians, who, by the way, are also making some progress with the slow offensive, would have to take a break in this direction. Crossing the Dnipro is far too risky a task. You have to try to attack the Russians from other directions on the eastern bank. ” Otherwise, after the offensive in Kharkiv, the Ukrainians are trying to advance towards Lysychansk in the Luhansk district, while the Russians are continuing their offensive in the Donetsk district towards Bakhmut. The latter is now likely to prove even more difficult than usual due to the deterioration in logistics resulting from the liberation of Izyum.
Melnyk and Mussiyenko also agree that the Russians could be planning an attack on the city of Zaporizhia. However, both consider the prospects questionable, although it would be in Russia’s interest to create problems for Ukraine elsewhere. “I wouldn’t even be surprised if it was not the Russians but the Ukrainians who scored points in the Zaporizhia district. The Russian grouping throughout the east has become tactically and strategically weaker as a result of recent events,” says Mussienko. On the other hand, he believes that the targeted shelling of power plants in south-eastern Ukraine on Sunday evening is a sign of desperation: “All the illusions that people might be taking to the streets because of the power outage are absolutely wrong, especially since almost all the problems were solved quickly. With such shelling, You can’t break the Ukrainian resistance. We’ve known since day one that there could be power and water shortages.”
In general, the situation is such that all combat operations will not be over by the end of the year and that Ukraine must be prepared for the continuation of the war next year. This also includes the creation of a weapons reserve, in which Germany also has some potential to offer. “Of course, we are still clearly inferior in terms of the number of heavy weapons. Offensives like the one in Kharkiv are made possible primarily by the cleverness of the Ukrainian military leadership,” says Oleksiy Melnyk. “And although many say that tanks have become somewhat obsolete in modern warfare, in practice we see that this is not true. The rapid deliveries of Leopard 2 and Marder infantry fighting vehicles would really help us enormously.”
So far, however, the Ukrainian soldiers seem to be very satisfied with the Gepard anti-aircraft gun tanks, which, according to the Economist, are involved in the Kharkiv offensive. “It would not be a sensation if they were used there. They are not really an offensive weapon. The cheetahs are a very good anti-aircraft device for the front line, which can close off drones and attack aircraft. This significantly limits Russia’s air capabilities,” comments Mussiyenko of the Center for Military Legal Studies. “Ukraine would like more of that.”
