As Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced on Sunday, parliament is set to be dissolved on Wednesday, August 9, days before the scheduled end of his term. By law, the dissolution will give the new caretaker government 90 days, or until mid-November, to hold elections.
But the government coalition has warned that they could be delayed. Data from the last census taken in May was finally released last weekend and the electoral commission says it needs time to redraw electoral boundaries, a sore point for several political parties.
Whether it is delayed or not, the poll is expected to go ahead without the country’s most popular politician, Imran Khan. Pakistan has been experiencing political turmoil since the former prime minister was removed from power in April 2022. The latest event: the septuagenarian was sentenced to three years in prison on Saturday for corruption, after months of repression against of his party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).
Lawyers for Mr. Khan, who began serving his sentence in prison in a dilapidated cell equipped with a mattress on the floor according to his defense, appealed his conviction on Tuesday. If it is not overturned, this court decision will prevent him from standing for election.
An economy in the doldrums
It is unclear what form the PTI will take with its charismatic leader behind bars, but the two usually feuding dynastic parties that lead the outgoing coalition should continue to weigh. This coalition, however, obtained little popular support during the eighteen months that it spent at the head of the fifth most populous country in the world.
The economy is still in the doldrums despite a new bailout package from the International Monetary Fund, with crushing foreign debt, soaring inflation and widespread unemployment as factories shut down for lack of foreign currency to purchase materials raw.
“Economic decisions are invariably difficult and often unpopular, requiring a long-term government to implement them effectively,” said Ahmed Bilal Mehboob, a member of a Pakistani think tank. “This election is important because it will result in a five-year term for a new government which, ideally, should be empowered to make key decisions for economic recovery,” the analyst continued.
According to the director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington, Michael Kugelman, any delay could expose the differences between the main coalition partners, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Party. of the People of Pakistan (PPP). “Delaying the election might just further irritate the public and galvanize an opposition that has already suffered months of repression,” he said.
The shadow of the army behind every election
In Pakistan, behind every election is the army, which has staged at least three successful coups since the country was forged from the partition of India in 1946.
Imran Khan enjoyed genuine popular support when he came to power in 2018, but analysts say it was only with the blessing of the country’s powerful generals, with whom he reportedly fell out in the months following preceded his eviction.
Ousted from power by a motion of censure, he then embarked on a risky campaign of no-confidence against the army, accusing it of interfering in domestic politics and even designating an official of the intelligence services as being behind an assassination attempt against him in November.
Former cricket star turned politician Imran Khan has since persistently pressured the government to hold snap elections by holding mass rallies and removing his MPs from parliament, but his maneuver has ultimately failed. Mr Khan’s arrest and brief detention in May in the same corruption case that earned him his recent conviction, sparked days of sometimes violent protests, with unprecedented anger directed at the military.
The duel between Mr Khan’s immense popularity and the army’s vast influence has intensified with a massive crackdown that has undermined his power on the streets. Thousands of his supporters and party leaders have been arrested and are to appear before a military tribunal.
