It’s official now. There will be a change of Government in Poland. A turn with a European accent. The Law and Justice party (PiS) lost its absolute majority in Sunday’s general elections and will not be able to repeat its term. According to the final results announced by the electoral commission, the only government option will be a tripartite led by the former president of the European Council, Donal Tusk. After all the constituencies were counted, the PiS reached 35.38% of the votes, while the liberal-conservative electoral alliance Civic Coalition (KO) of the opposition leader, Donald Tusk, obtained 30.7%.
The centrist Third Way obtained 14.4% and New Left 8.61%, leaving the tripartite opposition with 249 seats out of 460. The PiS has made it clear that it will try to form a Government, but it has no partner and the only party it could call, although arithmetic does not work, is the extreme right. The ultra-nationalist Confederation, which advocates an end to aid to Ukraine and ultra-liberal economic policies, has fallen behind in fourth place with 7.16%. The Polish scene is reminiscent of the Spanish one. The winning party in the polls deposited on June 23, the PP, does not have a parliamentary majority.
Analysts predicted that last Sunday’s elections were the most important in Poland since 1989. The match was also being played in Brussels. The option championed by the PiS meant the consolidation of the illiberal tendency and the train wreck with the European Commission that Jaroslaw Kacyniski’s men have maintained since coming to power in 2015. Tusk’s alternative included a completely antagonistic agenda: reconnecting with the community capital, which he knows well after leading the European Council for two terms.
The turn of the helm in Warsaw has been celebrated by the majority of the parliamentary group of the European Parliament, a very unusual scenario. “Very good news. Poles have voted en masse to open a new era in the country. No one is now getting in the way of Poland in its European future,” hailed Manfred Weber, leader of the European People’s Party, Tusk’s European family. “Poles have voted for change, for stopping the autocratic drift of PiS and for returning Poland to the place it deserves: the heart of Europe,” the Social Democrats celebrated.
Poland’s turnaround is good news for the EU. PiS has given Brussels enormous headaches. He refused to respect the refugee reception quotas agreed in 2015 and his controversial reform of the judiciary has undermined the rule of law and undermined the separation of powers. He crossed a red line proclaiming the supremacy of his law over community law. The Polish elections represent an important warning to sailors eight months before the European Parliament elections. The pro-European option has prevailed, something unthinkable years ago when PiS did not have any rival. Meanwhile, the one who will suffer these winds of change is the Hungarian Víktor Orbán, who loses his illiberal dance partner in the affront against Brussels.
