Giant electoral billboards, sharp slogans, promises of prosperity… On the surface, everything is ready in Zimbabwe to let the people express themselves at the polls on Wednesday August 23. But the hope that accompanied the 2018 presidential elections gave way to fear and resignation. Five years after the fall of the dreaded Robert Mugabe, it is a country without illusions which is about to take part in what many observers consider to be a vote folded in advance.
In the shoes of the favorite, the current president Emmerson Mnangagwa, 80, leader of the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), which has governed the country since its independence in 1980. At the end of 2017, he was placed at the top of the state as the army ended Robert Mugabe’s 37-year rule amid internal rivalry. Former right-hand man of the deposed president, Emmerson Mnangagwa was officially elected in July 2018 after promising a panoply of democratic and economic reforms. But at the end of this first term, the conclusion is unanimous: nothing resembles the old Zimbabwe more than the new.
Facing him, Nelson Chamisa, a 45-year-old lawyer and pastor, stands out as the leader of the opposition. Already in 2018, he took advantage of the relative space of freedom opened up after the fall of Robert Mugabe by a government in search of democratic legitimacy to assert on the international scene to stir up the crowds as the presidential election approached. Some then promise him a victory by tidal wave in a country that wants to believe in the possibility of a Zimbabwean spring after four decades under glass.
“People are hungry”
The army showers these hopes by firing live ammunition at protesters who contest the official victory of Emmerson Mnangagwa with 51.44% of the vote. Result: six dead and a nation brutally recalled to reality. Although the solidity of his training remains to be proven, Nelson Chamisa, back with a new movement, the Citizens’ Coalition for Change (CCC), enjoys a certain popularity while the economy of Zimbabwe is in free fall.
In July, inflation was 100% year-on-year and the Zimbabwean dollar lost 80% of its value against the US dollar in a matter of months. “The anger is there, it’s muted, it’s quiet, but it’s there, people are hungry,” says Dr Gorden Moyo, director of the Public Policy And Research Institute of Zimbabwe, who conducted extensive field research with more than 6,000 people in the run-up to the elections. In reality, however, the pre-election atmosphere leaves little doubt about the outcome of the election.
Nearly a hundred meetings of the Citizens’ Coalition for Change have been banned since its creation in January 2022 and several opposition figures are in prison on the eve of the elections. More than 130 ballot appeals have been filed in court accused of riding for the ruling party. At the end of July, the Africa manager of Open Society, Siphosami Malunga, thus denounced an “epic electoral disaster” after the disqualification of twelve CCC candidates in the legislative elections by the courts.
In mid-July, Emmerson Mnangagwa put a final turn of the screw by signing a law criminalizing the fact of “willfully undermining the sovereignty and national interests of Zimbabwe”. Nicknamed “Patriotic Law”, it caused civil society and the opposition to jump as a weapon of mass destruction of freedom of expression. A law drastically strengthening control over civil society organizations is also awaiting presidential signature, while other measures have “successfully criminalized protests”, explains Piers Pigou, head of the Southern Africa program at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), an African think tank, which finds a “militarization of the law”.
“It’s a consensus: what we see is more of a ritual in the form of an election than an authentic electoral process”, summarizes the specialist. According to a study published by the independent polling institute Afrobarometer in July, 59% of Zimbabweans live in fear of being victims of political violence in the margins of elections. However, The Election Resource Center (ERC), a Zimbabwean think tank that recently analyzed the pre-election climate, considers it relatively peaceful so far, compared to the overt violence that traditionally characterizes electoral campaigns in the country.
“The Carrot and the Stick”
Closely associated with the ruling party, the military in particular have strangely deserted the countryside. At the same time, a new organization with mysterious contours, Forever Associates Zimbabwe (FAZ), has quietly established itself across the country in record time. “Officially, the organization was set up by Zimbabweans from a university, but the perception that we have on the ground is that it emanates from President Emmerson Mnangagwa”, decrypts Gorden Moyo, the director of Public Policy And Research Institute of Zimbabwe.
In the villages criss-crossed by its teams ahead of the elections, the organization, partly derived from the intelligence services (Central Intelligence Organisation), had on average one member for every five households. “They’re everywhere,” says Gorden Moyo. “Their role is to make sure that people are registered to vote and that they will vote for the party in power”, continues the one who was also a minister in the coalition government of the former opposition leader. Morgan Tsvangirai between 2010 and 2013. “They wield the carrot and the stick, but especially the carrot, giving gifts, with veiled threats of the stick after the election if things do not go as planned”, details- he.
“Creating a parallel structure”
Historically, Zimbabwe’s ruling party has had a strong hold in the countryside in particular, where the territory is criss-crossed by intelligence services, the military and veterans of the country’s liberation struggle. How, then, to explain the emergence of Forever Associates Zimbabwe? “FAZ and distributing large sums of money – another feature of this election, he insists. Maybe a way to replace violence and threats, “said Gorden Moyo.
The strategy could be a response to the vital need for the government to give the appearance of credibility to the elections in the hope of normalizing its relations with the international community in order to obtain, among other things, a restructuring of the country’s abysmal debt. But the emergence of Forever Associates Zimbabwe could also be a sign that all is not well in the ZANU-PF kingdom. “Clearly there is a problem within the ruling party,” said Gorden Moyo.
“It is possible that Emmerson Mnangagwa has lost the confidence of the security forces, which would explain the creation of a parallel structure”, continues the former minister. In the background, the rivalry between the current president and his number two, vice-president Constantino Chiwenga, since the overthrow of Robert Mugabe. “For the moment, like in every electoral cycle, the priority is to retain power, they will stick together to achieve this”, analyzes Piers Pigou about the various factions that divide the ruling party. But once the ballots have been counted, believes the specialist, it is indeed the instability within ZANU-PF that could determine the future of Zimbabwe in the medium term. “They are more afraid of themselves than of the opposition”, sums up Gorden Moyo.
