Nigeria, the giant at the head of the West African bloc, is stepping up its efforts to bring down the military perpetrators of a putsch in Niger, an ambition as delicate as it is dangerous, for lack of means.
Sunday, July 30, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), chaired by the Nigerian Head of State, Bola Tinubu, gave the putschists a week to restore former President Mohamed Bazoum, overthrown in Niamey by members of his presidential guard. And the regional organization surprised by brandishing the threat of a possible “use of force” to restore constitutional order in the country. “It is no longer time for us to send out alarm signals,” insisted Mr. Tinubu. The time is for action. »
Nigeria’s army chief, Christopher Musa, went along with his president on Monday on RFI Hausa, saying: “We stand for democracy and that must continue. We are ready and as soon as we receive the order to intervene, we will. From Wednesday to Friday, the chiefs of staff of the organization must thus meet in Abuja. In the wake of statements by Messrs. Tinubu and Musa, Burkina Faso and Mali, both led by putschist soldiers, warned that a military intervention in Niger to restore President Bazoum would be considered “a declaration of war” against them.
Generalized insecurity
The resolution of this crisis is a question of “survival” for the heads of state of the region, explains Confidence MacHarry, security expert at the firm SBM Intelligence: “If the putschists get away with it, the other countries will live under the threat of coups d’etat. And in the first place Nigeria, which lived through three decades of military dictatorships before the return to democracy in 1999. President Tinubu therefore takes a very dim view of a putsch in a neighboring country, he who has built his legitimacy politics as a defender of democracy in exile during the 1990s.
Very active behind the scenes, the most populous country in Africa (215 million inhabitants) not only runs behind its past reputation as an influential colossus in the region, having been completely absent from regional debates in recent years, but also wishes to avoid more problems on its territory.
“Nigeria would have the most to fear from a destabilization of Niger, as it shares a border of over 1000 miles that overstretched security forces could not adequately protect,” said Hudson Institute researcher James Barnett. , in Washington. Mr. Tinubu fears in particular an overflow on his territory of the jihadist groups which are rampant in Niger and an influx of refugees. And this while Nigeria itself already faces near-pervasive insecurity: criminal gangs in the center and northwest, jihadist groups in the northeast, separatist unrest in the southeast.
These multiple conflicts are straining the Nigerian army, admittedly one of the largest in the region, but in reality underfunded and underequipped, and which is already failing to bring peace back home. In the event of a military intervention in Niger, “Nigeria will inevitably send men”, adds Mr. MacHarry: “But the government does not have the resources necessary for that, it is not prepared. »
Huge social anger
While Bola Tinubu displayed upon taking power two months ago his determination to put Nigeria back on the diplomatic map, going so far as to affirm “Nigeria is back”, he himself faces immense internal challenges. Experts doubt that he has the means for his ambitions at a time when his country is going through a serious economic crisis.
Huge social anger is brewing, with threats of nationwide strikes and protests. His first reforms aimed at reviving the economy caused an inflationary outbreak in this country where nearly half of the population lives in extreme poverty. Mr. Tinubu was also elected to lead Nigeria in a ballot contested by his two main opponents. Their appeals are always examined by the courts.
Specialists even doubt that Nigerian soldiers will agree to be deployed in Niger, as the links between the two armies, made up of many Hausa, an ethnic group present across the Sahel, are strong. “It is unthinkable that the Nigerian military is fighting soldiers we consider our brothers,” said a senior Nigerian officer on condition of anonymity. It will most likely be a disaster, as the soldiers will not have the courage to execute this mission. »
For the time being, it is less a question of assessing whether a military intervention led by Nigeria is possible than whether the mere threat of this intervention will resolve the crisis. If this creates a crack within the Niger army, a return to civilian rule is possible, thinks James Barnett. On the other hand, if the junta uses this threat to rally the population to its cause, “it could degenerate”.
