The controversial ex-leader Thaksin Shinawatra must return to Thailand on Tuesday, after more than fifteen years abroad to escape justice, in a context made uncertain by the vote in Parliament to appoint the Prime Minister, the same day.
The second economy of Southeast Asia, accustomed to cyclical crises, is preparing for a new peak of tensions, with the return of the billionaire who has polarized political life for more than twenty years between the “reds” (his supporters) and the “yellows” (conservatives loyal to the monarchy).
Parliament must also vote a few hours later to approve the candidacy of Srettha Thavisin as Prime Minister, a profile deemed consensual to bring together a kingdom where the legislative elections of May 14 have deepened divisions.
“I would like to request permission to return to live on Thai soil and share the air with my dear Thai brothers and sisters,” 74-year-old Thaksin Shinawatra wrote on Twitter (renamed X) on Monday.
The former head of government, in power between 2001 and 2006 before being overthrown in a coup, is due to land at Don Mueang Airport in Bangkok around 09:00 (02:00 GMT), if he does not change his opinion as it has done in the past, on several occasions.
After his immediate arrest, he is to be brought before the Supreme Court, and then taken into custody, for a series of pending convictions and proceedings that relate to his business and his management of the country.
He was sentenced in absentia to a total of ten years behind bars, but his relatives are hoping for his placement under house arrest.
The police are planning an important device in the face of the possible mobilization of supporters who have come to welcome him, which could number in the thousands of people according to his party.
The charismatic billionaire, last seen in Thailand in 2008, has denounced political prosecutions aimed at removing him from power, in favor of the military-royalist elites.
But from abroad, he remained an influential behind-the-scenes player, via his family-controlled Pheu Thai party, which continues to capitalize on Thaksin’s popularity in the northern and northeast countryside.
His return coincides with the possible election of a candidate Pheu Thai as Prime Minister, Srettha Thavisin, deputies and senators gathered to vote from 15:00 (08:00 GMT).
In July, they rejected Pita Limjaroenrat, winner of the election with the Move Forward party, because of his reform program deemed too radical vis-à-vis the monarchy.
For the second vote in Parliament, Pheu Thai tried to avoid the blockages of a system in the hands of the conservative establishment, by forming a coalition of eleven parties which includes formations favorable to the army, from the outgoing government.
But this union betrayed its promise never to unite with the military, and angered some of its supporters who, like the majority of Thais, voted to oust them from power.
The military carried out two coups against prime ministers from the Shinawatra family, Thaksin in 2006, and his sister Yingluck in 2014, the last elected civilian leader to date.
The two camps came together after the breakthrough of Move Forward which, supported by the younger generations, overcame the divide between “yellows” and “reds” at the polls. Move Forward has announced that it will remain in opposition.
Srettha Thavisin, a novice in politics, was very cautious vis-à-vis a reform of lèse-majesté defended by Move Forward.
The property magnate, 60, prefers issues related to poverty and inequality, highlighting his background in business.
Thailand, lacking in structural reforms, has a lower growth rate than its Indonesian or Vietnamese neighbours, and is suffering from the uncertainties linked to its political future.
Srettha needs a majority of votes from both chambers, namely 500 elected deputies and 250 military-appointed senators. If he has the support of a majority of deputies, his appointment requires the rallying of around sixty senators.
22/08/2023 01:51:39 – Bangkok (AFP) – © 2023 AFP
