The forces of the paramilitary group Wagner retreated to Russia on Sunday, putting an end to the rebellion launched by their leader Yevgeny Prigojine which shook the Kremlin and revealed, in the eyes of Westerners, “cracks” and “divisions” in the camp of Vladimir Poutine.
Fierce critic of Russian military strategy in Ukraine, Evgeni Prigojine will escape any legal proceedings and will be able to join Belarus, the Kremlin promised, without it being known on Sunday when this departure in the guise of exile is planned, nor where is the tempestuous boss of Wagner.
During a 24-hour spree that led his militias less than 400 km from Moscow, or even 200 according to him, he frontally challenged the master of the Kremlin, before ordering his men to return to their bases, at the end, according to the official version, of mediation by the Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, the Kremlin’s only European ally.
In a sign that the urgency of the crisis had passed, Wagner’s fighters left the Voronezh and Lipetsk regions south of Moscow on Sunday, according to local authorities.
The day before, they had left the military HQ they had seized in Rostov (southwest), the nerve center of Russian operations in Ukraine, beginning their withdrawal to avoid spilling “Russian blood”, in the words of Yevgeny Prigojine.
However, in the Russian capital as in its region, the “anti-terrorist operation regime” remains in force. Large police patrols were deployed along the road leading out of Moscow in the south of the capital and Monday will be a non-working day in Moscow.
“It’s a normal situation,” puts Andrei, a 34-year-old Moscow lawyer, into perspective. “We live in Russia, so we are used to being stressed. Nothing more.”
By launching his mutiny, the head of Wagner had promised to “liberate the Russian people”, targeting in particular his two sworn enemies, the Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu and the Chief of Staff Valéri Guérassimov, whom he accuses of having sacrificed thousands of men in Ukraine.
But he had above all challenged the authority of the master of the Kremlin in power since the end of 1999, who seemed taken aback and raised the specter of a “civil war”.
Scrutinized in all the chancelleries, this crisis “reveals real cracks” at the highest level of the Russian state, estimated the American secretary of state on Sunday. “The fact that you have someone on the inside questioning Putin’s authority and directly questioning why he launched this aggression of Ukraine, that in itself is something very powerful,” added Antony Blinken.
This unprecedented crisis was mentioned by US President Joe Biden and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky during a telephone exchange, announced kyiv and Washington.
French President Emmanuel Macron also felt that Wagner’s rebellion showed “the divisions” in the Russian camp and “the fragility of both its armies and its auxiliary forces”.
For an adviser to the Ukrainian presidency, Mykhaïlo Podoliak, “Prigojine humiliated Putin/the state and showed that there is no longer a monopoly on violence”.
Extraordinary scene on Saturday evening in Rostov, Russia, dozens of residents showed their support for the insurgents, chanting “Wagner, Wagner!” shortly before their departure. In the city on Sunday, however, a deep relief prevailed.
“I’ve been following the news all day and I was really worried. So I’m glad it all ended well,” Tatiana, a 76-year-old retiree, told AFP.
Weakened in the eyes of Westerners, the Russian regime was however able to count on Sunday on the support of Beijing. “As a friendly neighbor and a strategic partner, China supports Russia in its efforts to protect the country’s stability,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry said, calling the mutiny “an internal matter.”
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic meanwhile praised the Russian leader’s attitude: “Everything ended thanks to the firm reaction of President Putin. It was very firm, clear and precise”, he declared to the Pink television channel according to the Russian state news agency Tass.
Moscow has also tried to dispel the idea that this crisis will affect its offensive in Ukraine.
The Russian army said on Sunday it had “successfully repelled” attacks by kyiv forces in four areas of the Ukrainian front.
In the east, around Bakhmout, a town taken in May by Wagner’s troops, the Ukrainian soldiers saw no major change in the aftermath of the abortive putsch.
“Most of the troops understand that this is a circus, that the Russians have not left,” one of them, Nazar, 26, told AFP.
According to experts, the mutiny in Russia could, however, have an impact, at least psychologically, on the course of the war in which Wagner’s militiamen took an active part.
“Prigozhin’s rage against the elite could spill over into the Russian military,” said Lucian Kim of the American Wilson Think Tank.
The Kremlin sought to avoid this scenario by also promising impunity to Wagner’s mercenaries who participated in the rebellion, showing a very unusual leniency.
If the terms of the compromise between the Kremlin and the head of Wagner remain subject to speculation, the Belarusian president has played a key role.
He has thus won a prestigious victory but could regret the price when he sees the cumbersome leader of Wagner arrive at his home, according to analysts.
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda reacted on Sunday by saying that NATO will have to “strengthen” its eastern flank if Yevgeny Prigojine does indeed arrive in Belarus.
In an unusual way, the Russian authorities have also recommended that the media give their employees a day off after an “emotionally demanding and tense” day on Saturday.
06/26/2023 08:12:23 – Moscow (AFP) – © 2023 AFP
