Will we see the resurgence of Covid-19? The signals are not red, but the start of the school year, synonymous with mixing, and the arrival of a new variant, the characteristics of which are still unknown, could change the situation. We had almost forgotten about the virus. Since mid-July, however, all of Western Europe has experienced an upsurge in cases. In France, the Bayonne Festival, which was very busy at the end of July, notably caused an increase in contamination.
In its latest update on Friday, the French public health agency noted a continued rise in indicators in most regions at the end of August, which nevertheless remain at “low” levels. These indicators remain “a little blurred due to the low number of tests and sequencing carried out everywhere”, underlines to Agence France-Presse Antoine Flahault, director of the Institute of global health, in Geneva.
“It is estimated that less than 1% of the sequencing activity of two years ago is done globally today,” he adds. In France, the surveillance system for the virus has been considerably lightened and is currently close to that of the flu.
In this context, it is difficult to closely follow the circulation of the virus, even if the Minister of Health, Aurélien Rousseau, assured France Info on Friday that our “surveillance system is still in place and vigilant to protect us against any resurgence of the virus. ‘epidemic whatsoever’.
One certainty: the return to school on Monday promises to be a good time for the spread of the virus in schools, offices, public transport. “The start of the new school year is the bed of autumn-winter epidemics of RSV (the bronchiolitis virus), influenza and now Covid every year”, reminds AFP Mircea Sofonea, epidemiologist at the University of Montpellier.
The Omicron sub-variants of the XBB lineage, in particular the EG.5.1 variant (nicknamed Eris), currently dominate in France. This last variant is more transmissible than its more recent predecessors, but nothing says that it is more virulent.
“For the moment, there is no particular signal of concern in the cases reported, but they are still too small in number to appreciate their characteristics”, underlines Antoine Flahault.
As a precaution, the United Kingdom announced at the end of August that it was advancing its vaccination campaign against Covid to September 11. “The sooner we start the vaccination the better because it will give more time to deliver the vaccine,” Keith Neal, professor of epidemiology at the University of Nottingham, told the Science Media Center.
In France, the new vaccination campaign against Covid, coupled like last year with that of the flu, is due to start on October 17. This vaccination will be “essential to protect people at risk from serious forms”, insisted Public Health France on Friday.
But will the vaccines be effective? “Against the variants of the XBB line, including the subvariant EG.5.1 (Eris), the formulation of the vaccine booster expected for the fall should be, since it targets these variants precisely”, assures Antoine Flahault.
“On the other hand, if during the fall and winter, the BA.2.86 variant were to qualify and in turn become dominant, we do not yet know what its degree of immune escape from these vaccine boosters would be. “, he adds.
Still, the immune status of the world’s population is very different from what it was when Omicron emerged, with a large proportion of people vaccinated or having been infected by different successive variants allowing them to maintain some protection, notes the French health agency.
“There is no question of approaching the start of the school year with a ball in your stomach in the face of the Covid”, also reassures Mircea Sofonea. But “being careful, respecting barrier gestures and isolating yourself if you are symptomatic” remain rigorous imperatives.
