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The dark clouds remain on the automotive sector at the global level for at least the next two years, according to a report published by Standard and Poor s. The study forecasts a drop in sales of light vehicles between 2% and 3% this year and sees almost no growth during the period 2020-2021.
Especially striking is the fall in the Chinese market , where it is expected a decrease in the sales of vehicles between 7% and 9% this year and with a moderate increase between 2020 and 2021. In the united States is expected to decline 3% in the balance end of 2019.
The only growths of the market are those of Japan and Germany, where they are registering positive figures from the year 2017.
S&P
S&P justifies these negative data by the worsening of the c ondiciones global economic , the trade war between the united States and China, as well as the high price that entails the technological innovation that the manufacturers are implementing in their models, resulting in an increase of final price for consumers, and, consequently, a reduction of sales, as explained by the credit analyst of S&P’s Global Ratings, is Vittoria Ferraris .
In the european market, including western and eastern Europe, S&P provides a certain stability throughout 2020-2021. Despite growing concerns about the economic conditions in Germany, which until now has been the only growth market in 2019 (+ 0.9% in August), the analysts believe that it is unlikely that there is a further deterioration of the production and sale. As a factor of uncertainty is mentioned in the first place, the “Brexit”, but also taking into account that “given that the Uk market has been in a downward trend during the last three years, we are confident in a stabilization at least by discarding a Brexit without agreement”.
it Is expected, therefore, that auto manufacturers suffer some erosion of profit margins, particularly in the segment of the mass market, as they may have difficulties to monetize the investments made to equip their products with innovative technologies in connectivity, to advance the process of electrification and driving autonomously.
In terms of their forecasts for the years 2020 and 2021, Ferraris explains that it is expected a growth of zero to 1% in global sales of light vehicles . “It will remain the weakness of all regions of the world market except China, where it can produce a spike in modest, though not before 2021”.
sales of light vehicles fell 11% in the first eight months of 2019, according to the Association of Automobile Manufacturers of China, although the rate of decline is gradually reducing. In this country the sale of vehicles powered by alternative energy , including hybrid electric vehicles battery electric and plug-in hybrids, are recording a positive evolution, with growth of around 40% in the first seven months of 2019. But their share in total sales is still very low, around 5% of the total, as opposed to 4.5% as of the end of the year in 2018, and therefore, not considered to be enough to boost sales in the chinese market.
